ENGLAND › NATIONAL LEAGUE

28.04.2026 18:45

Scunthorpe

1 - 0

Southend

Attis Arena

Scunthorpe

Match Timeline

Southend

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Scunthorpe vs Southend Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Away Win

Probability 57.4%

Odds -

BTTS

BTTS No

Probability 47.3%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.5

Probability 45.6%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Away Win	57.4%	-	▥
BTTS	BTTS No	47.3%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Under 2.5	45.6%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	87.7%	-	▥
HT / FT	Away / Away	-	-	▥
Correct Score	0-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Scunthorpe Win 38.3%

Draw 4.2%

Southend Win 57.4%

Expected Goals (xG)

Scunthorpe1.47

Southend1.68

Recent Form (Last 5)

Scunthorpe

WWDLW

90 GF / 68 GA

Southend

WLDWL

100 GF / 52 GA

Key Stats

1.8

Average Goals Scored

1.89

1.36

Average Goals Conceded

0.98

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Scunthorpe 50 matches

Southend 53 matches

Scunthorpe	Statistic	Southend
25	Wins	29
13	Draws	12
12	Losses	12
90	Goals For	100
68	Goals Against	52
1.8	Avg Goals Scored	1.89
1.36	Avg Goals Conceded	0.98
35	BTTS Yes	29
43	Over 1.5	43
31	Over 2.5	29
19	Over 3.5	13
9	Clean Sheets	19
7	Failed To Score	7
0	Shots On Goal	0
0	Total Shots	0
0	Corners	0
0%	Ball Possession	0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Scunthorpe hold an advantage after winning the first leg 1-0, so Southend now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Southend. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Southend having the stronger overall control.

Scunthorpe Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Scunthorpe arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 82 points after 46 matches. Their record of 23 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 77:62 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on C. Roberts (18 goals), D. Whitehall (17 goals), D. Howe (12 goals), with creative support from C. Roberts (8 assists), T. Denton (6 assists), D. Whitehall (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Southend Analysis

Southend come into this tie placed 6 in their league with 81 points from 46 matches. Their record of 23 wins, 12 draws, and 11 defeats with goals at 83:47 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Dallas (17 goals), G. Scott-Morriss (15 goals), C. Kendall (8 goals), with creative support from H. Boyes (9 assists), O. Coker (7 assists), S. Austin (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Scunthorpe won 7 times, Southend won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from Scunthorpe's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win

BTTS: BTTS No

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)

H2H summary: Scunthorpe wins 7, draws 1, Southend wins 7

Standings

Conference: Regular season

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	York	46	33	9	4	114:41	73	108	D W W W W
2	Rochdale	46	33	7	6	88:41	47	106	D W W D L
3	Carlisle	46	29	8	9	87:51	36	95	W W W D D
4	Boreham Wood	46	27	9	10	95:58	37	90	W W W L W
5	Scunthorpe Home	46	23	13	10	77:62	15	82	L D W L D
6	Southend Away	46	23	12	11	83:47	36	81	W L W W D
7	Forest Green	46	23	12	11	82:52	30	81	W L W D W
8	FC Halifax Town	46	20	10	16	69:66	3	70	W L D D W
9	Hartlepool	46	18	14	14	54:59	-5	68	L W W L D
10	Woking	46	16	15	15	69:54	15	63	L W D W D
11	Tamworth	46	17	11	18	63:71	-8	62	W D L D W
12	Boston United	46	15	14	17	63:67	-4	59	W W D W D
13	Altrincham	46	17	6	23	55:65	-10	57	W W W L L
14	Solihull Moors	46	14	14	18	71:72	-1	56	W L D D W
15	Wealdstone	46	15	11	20	67:74	-7	56	L D D L W
16	Yeovil Town	46	15	6	25	48:68	-20	51	L L D L W
17	Eastleigh	46	13	11	22	57:80	-23	50	W D L W D
18	Gateshead	46	14	8	24	54:90	-36	50	L L W W D
19	Sutton Utd	46	11	14	21	59:79	-20	47	L L L L D
20	Aldershot Town	46	13	7	26	69:87	-18	46	L L L L L
21	Brackley Town	46	10	12	24	40:75	-35	42	L W L D L
22	Morecambe	46	9	11	26	66:103	-37	38	L L L D W
23	Braintree	46	8	12	26	38:76	-38	36	L L L D L
24	Truro City	46	8	10	28	42:72	-30	34	W L L D L

Promotion - League Two

Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)

Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)

Relegation