UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
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FUFA Kadiba Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
55%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
SC Villa Win 54.9%
Draw 9%
BUL Win 36.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Villa1.27
BUL0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Villa SC Villa
WWDLW
35 GF / 14 GA
BUL BUL
WLDWL
29 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.12
0.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
8
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Villa SC Villa 25 matches
BUL BUL 26 matches
SC Villa Statistic BUL
14 Wins 9
6 Draws 7
5 Losses 10
35 Goals For 29
14 Goals Against 28
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
0.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
8 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring BUL. SC Villa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 51 points compared to BUL in 8 on 34, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BUL having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. BUL arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

SC Villa Analysis

SC Villa approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 51 points after 26 outings. They have recorded 15 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a 38:14 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on F. Ssebuufu (8 goals), N. Yiga (7 goals), A. Ssemakula (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

BUL Analysis

With 34 points from 26 games and a place of 8, BUL still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 29:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Ndugwa (6 goals), I. Wagoina (3 goals), J. Kirya (3 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, SC Villa won 3 times, BUL won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:16 from SC Villa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
H2H summary: SC Villa wins 3, draws 4, BUL wins 7
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
Last matches: BUL
23.05.26
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
4
L
19.05.26
Pre
BUL
Kitara
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.04.26
Pre
BUL
NEC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
BUL
Express
2
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
2
5
L
16.04.26
Pre
BUL
URA
1
1
D
08.04.26
Pre
BUL
Maroons
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
5
1
W
03.03.26
Pre
BUL
Police
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
1
2
L
23.01.26
Pre
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
BUL
Police
1
3
L
13.12.25
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
3
L
H2H: SC Villa vs BUL
08.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
23.01.26
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
L
04.04.25
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
1
0
L
26.09.24
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
2
1
W
15.03.24
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
0
1
W
24.10.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
21.03.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
0
W
21.10.22
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
1
0
L
21.05.22
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
1
0
L
23.11.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
17.10.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
27.04.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D
04.12.20
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
2
2
D
23.02.20
H2H
BUL
SC Villa
2
1
L
13.11.19
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
2
1
W
06.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
1
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Police
2
1
W
15.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
H2H at home: SC Villa
08.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
26.09.24
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
2
1
W
24.10.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
21.03.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
0
W
23.11.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
17.10.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
27.04.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D
13.11.19
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D
Last matches: BUL
23.05.26
Pre
BUL
Entebbe UPPC
0
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
BUL
Express
2
0
W
16.04.26
Pre
BUL
URA
1
1
D
08.04.26
Pre
BUL
Maroons
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
BUL
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
BUL
Police
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
BUL
KCCA
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pre
BUL
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
BUL
Lugazi
1
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
BUL
Calvary
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
BUL
Vipers
1
3
L
20.11.25
Pre
BUL
Kitara
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
BUL
NEC
1
1
D
17.10.25
Pre
BUL
Mbarara City
1
1
D
H2H away: BUL
08.05.26
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
26.09.24
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
2
1
L
24.10.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
W
21.03.23
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
0
L
23.11.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
W
17.10.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
27.04.21
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D
13.11.19
H2H
SC Villa
BUL
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9
BUL Away
30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League