PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
03.05.2026 17:00
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Referee: A. Rodrigues
SC Braga
Match Timeline
Estoril
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
M. Dorgeles · Assist: R. Zalazar
SC Braga
🟨
29'
Gabriel Moscardo
SC Braga
🟨
36'
Xeka
Estoril
🟨
38'
Demir Ege Tıknaz
SC Braga
🟨
45+1'
Felix Bacher
Estoril
🔄
46'
R. Zalazar ↔ Luisinho
SC Braga
🟨
50'
Ferro
Estoril
🔄
53'
Ferro ↔ A. Lacximicant
Estoril
🔄
61'
A. El Ouazzani ↔ F. Navarro
SC Braga
🔄
70'
J. Moutinho ↔ P. Oliveira
SC Braga
🔄
70'
P. Amaral ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
⚽
79'
Y. Begraoui · Assist: R. Sanchez
Estoril
🔄
80'
Y. Begraoui ↔ A. Marques
Estoril
🔄
80'
R. Guitane ↔ Peixinho
Estoril
🔄
81'
R. Sanchez ↔ P. Carvalho
Estoril
🟨
90+2'
Luís Pinto
SC Braga

SC Braga vs Estoril Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SC Braga Win 88%
Draw 0%
Estoril Win 12.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Braga1.81
Estoril1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Braga SC Braga
WWDLW
95 GF / 44 GA
Estoril Estoril
WLDWL
51 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.65
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
23
BTTS Yes
17
28
Over 2.5
20
4.36
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Braga SC Braga 50 matches
Estoril Estoril 31 matches
SC Braga Statistic Estoril
29 Wins 10
12 Draws 7
9 Losses 14
95 Goals For 51
44 Goals Against 52
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
23 BTTS Yes 17
36 Over 1.5 23
28 Over 2.5 20
16 Over 3.5 17
23 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 10
4.36 Shots On Goal 4.03
10.52 Total Shots 11.58
4.64 Corners 4.48
54.7% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by SC Braga's more proactive style and Estoril's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. SC Braga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 56 points compared to Estoril in 10 on 37, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SC Braga expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Estoril in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estoril having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Estoril arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Estoril.

SC Braga Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 56 points from 31 games, SC Braga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 16 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 59:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Zalazar (16 goals), R. Horta (14 goals), P. Victor (8 goals), with creative support from R. Zalazar (4 assists), R. Horta (4 assists), P. Victor (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Estoril Analysis

Estoril sit 10 with 37 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 51:52, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (19 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, SC Braga won 9 times, Estoril won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:9 from SC Braga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: SC Braga 3-4-1-2 / Estoril 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: SC Braga wins 9, draws 5, Estoril wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2