ITALY › SERIE A
03.05.2026 13:00
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Referee: F. Maresca
Sassuolo
Match Timeline
AC Milan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
D. Berardi · Assist: A. Lauriente
Sassuolo
🟨
9'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟨
24'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟥
24'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟨
38'
Nemanja Matić
Sassuolo
🔄
40'
J. Idzes ↔ W. Coulibaly
Sassuolo
🔄
46'
N. Matic ↔ L. Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
46'
C. Nkunku ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
⚽
47'
A. Lauriente · Assist: K. Thorstvedt
Sassuolo
🟨
57'
Ulisses Garcia
Sassuolo
🔄
59'
D. Berardi ↔ C. Volpato
Sassuolo
🔄
59'
A. Saelemaekers ↔ R. Loftus-Cheek
AC Milan
🔄
59'
Y. Fofana ↔ C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🔄
59'
R. Leao ↔ S. Gimenez
AC Milan
🔄
66'
A. Jashari ↔ S. Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
71'
Samuele Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
77'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
AC Milan
🔄
84'
M. Nzola ↔ A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo
🔄
84'
A. Lauriente ↔ A. Fadera
Sassuolo
🟨
89'
Cristian Volpato
Sassuolo
🟨
90+4'
Alieu Fadera
Sassuolo

Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sassuolo Win 47.8%
Draw 0%
AC Milan Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.02
AC Milan1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WWDLW
42 GF / 47 GA
AC Milan AC Milan
WLDWL
53 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
18
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
15
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sassuolo Sassuolo 36 matches
AC Milan AC Milan 38 matches
Sassuolo Statistic AC Milan
14 Wins 21
7 Draws 10
15 Losses 7
42 Goals For 53
47 Goals Against 30
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
18 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 24
20 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 8
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.39
10.75 Total Shots 13.76
4.06 Corners 4.68
44.4% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AC Milan's more proactive style and Sassuolo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. AC Milan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 67 points while Sassuolo sit 10 on 46, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward AC Milan. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sassuolo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and AC Milan in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Milan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo sit 10 with 46 points after 34 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, while the 41:44 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Pinamonti (8 goals), Domenico Berardi (7 goals), Ismael Koné (6 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (8 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), C. Volpato (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 67 points after 34 matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 48:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), A. Rabiot (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rabiot (4 assists), R. Leao (3 assists), C. Pulisic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 10 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo won 4 times, AC Milan won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:28 from Sassuolo's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sassuolo 4-3-3 / AC Milan 3-5-2
Missing players: Sassuolo 4, AC Milan 1
H2H summary: Sassuolo wins 4, draws 4, AC Milan wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B