ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Referee: F. Maresca
Sassuolo
Match Timeline
AC Milan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
D. Berardi · Assist: A. Lauriente
Sassuolo
🟨
9'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟨
24'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟥
24'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🟨
38'
Nemanja Matić
Sassuolo
🔄
40'
J. Idzes ↔ W. Coulibaly
Sassuolo
🔄
46'
N. Matic ↔ L. Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
46'
C. Nkunku ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
47'
A. Lauriente · Assist: K. Thorstvedt
Sassuolo
🟨
57'
Ulisses Garcia
Sassuolo
🔄
59'
D. Berardi ↔ C. Volpato
Sassuolo
🔄
59'
A. Saelemaekers ↔ R. Loftus-Cheek
AC Milan
🔄
59'
Y. Fofana ↔ C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🔄
59'
R. Leao ↔ S. Gimenez
AC Milan
🔄
66'
A. Jashari ↔ S. Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
71'
Samuele Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
77'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
AC Milan
🔄
84'
M. Nzola ↔ A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo
🔄
84'
A. Lauriente ↔ A. Fadera
Sassuolo
🟨
89'
Cristian Volpato
Sassuolo
🟨
90+4'
Alieu Fadera
Sassuolo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sassuolo Win 47.8%
Draw 0%
AC Milan Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.02
AC Milan1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WWDLW
42 GF / 47 GA
AC Milan AC Milan
WLDWL
53 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
18
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
15
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sassuolo Sassuolo 36 matches
AC Milan AC Milan 38 matches
Sassuolo Statistic AC Milan
14 Wins 21
7 Draws 10
15 Losses 7
42 Goals For 53
47 Goals Against 30
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
18 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 24
20 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 8
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.39
10.75 Total Shots 13.76
4.06 Corners 4.68
44.4% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AC Milan's more proactive style and Sassuolo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. AC Milan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 67 points while Sassuolo sit 10 on 46, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward AC Milan. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sassuolo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and AC Milan in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Milan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo sit 10 with 46 points after 34 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, while the 41:44 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Pinamonti (8 goals), Domenico Berardi (7 goals), Ismael Koné (6 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (8 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), C. Volpato (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 67 points after 34 matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 48:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), A. Rabiot (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rabiot (4 assists), R. Leao (3 assists), C. Pulisic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 10 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo won 4 times, AC Milan won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:28 from Sassuolo's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sassuolo 4-3-3 / AC Milan 3-5-2
Missing players: Sassuolo 4, AC Milan 1
H2H summary: Sassuolo wins 4, draws 4, AC Milan wins 7
Stats
Sassuolo Sassuolo
AC Milan AC Milan
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 3
16 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 1
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
550 Total passes 392
510 Passes accurate 339
1.58 expected_goals 0.24
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Sassuolo
Formation
AC Milan
S. Turati
S. Turati
S. Walukiewicz
S. Walukiewicz
J. Idzes
J. Idzes
T. Muharemovic
T. Muharemovic
U. Garcia
U. Garcia
I. Kone
I. Kone
N. Matic
N. Matic
K. Thorstvedt
🎯
K. Thorstvedt
D. Berardi
D. Berardi
M. Nzola
M. Nzola
A. Lauriente
🎯
A. Lauriente
M. Maignan
M. Maignan
F. Tomori
F. Tomori
M. Gabbia
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlovic
S. Pavlovic
A. Saelemaekers
A. Saelemaekers
Y. Fofana
Y. Fofana
A. Jashari
A. Jashari
A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot
P. Estupinan
P. Estupinan
C. Nkunku
C. Nkunku
R. Leao
R. Leao
Sassuolo 4-3-3
Starting XI
13
S. Turati
G
6
S. Walukiewicz
D
21
J. Idzes
↓ 40'
D
80
T. Muharemovic
D
23
U. Garcia
🟨 57'
D
90
I. Kone
M
18
N. Matic
↓ 46' 🟨 38'
M
42
K. Thorstvedt
🎯 47'
M
10
D. Berardi
⚽ 5' ↓ 59'
F
8
M. Nzola
↓ 84'
F
45
A. Lauriente
⚽ 47' 🎯 5' ↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
49
A. Muric
G
12
G. Satalino
G
16
G. Zacchi
G
99
A. Pinamonti
↑ 84'
F
24
L. Moro
F
25
W. Coulibaly
↑ 40'
D
20
A. Fadera
↑ 84' 🟨 90+4'
F
7
C. Volpato
↑ 59' 🟨 89'
M
35
L. Lipani
↑ 46'
M
66
Pedro Felipe
D
19
F. Romagna
D
3
J. Doig
D
40
A. Vranckx
M
44
E. Iannoni
M
33
C. Frangella
M
AC Milan 3-5-2
Starting XI
16
M. Maignan
G
23
F. Tomori
🟨 9' 🟨 24' 🟥 24'
D
46
M. Gabbia
D
31
S. Pavlovic
D
56
A. Saelemaekers
↓ 59'
M
19
Y. Fofana
↓ 59'
M
30
A. Jashari
↓ 66'
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
2
P. Estupinan
M
18
C. Nkunku
↓ 46'
F
10
R. Leao
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Terracciano
G
37
M. Pittarella
G
8
R. Loftus-Cheek
↑ 59' 🟨 77'
M
4
S. Ricci
↑ 66' 🟨 71'
M
33
D. Bartesaghi
D
24
Z. Athekame
↑ 46'
D
9
N. Fullkrug
F
11
C. Pulisic
↑ 59'
M
7
S. Gimenez
↑ 59'
F
5
K. De Winter
D
Last matches: Sassuolo
08.08.26
Fri
Sassuolo
FC Augsburg
2
3
L
05.08.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Celta Vigo
1
4
L
31.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Folgore Caratese
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Trento
0
2
L
25.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Parma
0
0
D
22.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Padova
4
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Parma
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Lecce
2
3
L
08.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Torino
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
0
0
D
17.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Como
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Genoa
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cagliari
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Juventus
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Bologna
0
1
L
09.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Lazio
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Atalanta
2
1
W
20.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Udinese
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Inter
0
5
L
Last matches: AC Milan
08.08.26
Fri
AC Milan
Chelsea
0
3
L
05.08.26
Fri
AC Milan
Inter
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
AC Milan
Celtic
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
H2H: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
03.05.26
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
2
0
W
14.12.25
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
2
2
D
03.12.24
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
6
1
L
14.04.24
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
3
3
D
30.12.23
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
1
0
L
29.01.23
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
2
5
W
30.08.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
0
D
22.05.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
3
L
28.11.21
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
1
3
W
21.04.21
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
1
2
W
20.12.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
L
21.07.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
L
15.12.19
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
0
0
D
02.03.19
H2H
AC Milan
Sassuolo
1
0
L
30.09.18
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
4
L
Last matches: Sassuolo
05.08.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Celta Vigo
1
4
L
31.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Folgore Caratese
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Parma
0
0
D
22.07.26
Fri
Sassuolo
Padova
4
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Lecce
2
3
L
17.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Como
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cagliari
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Bologna
0
1
L
01.03.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Atalanta
2
1
W
20.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
08.02.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Inter
0
5
L
25.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Cremonese
1
0
W
06.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Juventus
0
3
L
03.01.26
Ser
Sassuolo
Parma
1
1
D
21.12.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Torino
0
1
L
06.12.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
3
1
W
24.11.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Pisa
2
2
D
03.11.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Genoa
1
2
L
26.10.25
Ser
Sassuolo
AS Roma
0
1
L
28.09.25
Ser
Sassuolo
Udinese
3
1
W
H2H at home: Sassuolo
03.05.26
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
2
0
W
14.04.24
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
3
3
D
30.08.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
0
D
22.05.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
3
L
20.12.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
L
21.07.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
L
30.09.18
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
4
L
Last matches: AC Milan
08.08.26
Fri
AC Milan
Chelsea
0
3
L
25.07.26
Fri
AC Milan
Celtic
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
15.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
3
1
W
11.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
1
1
D
02.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
0
W
18.12.25
Sup
AC Milan
Napoli
0
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
04.12.25
Cop
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
23.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
08.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
2
2
D
28.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
05.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
H2H away: AC Milan
03.05.26
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
2
0
L
14.04.24
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
3
3
D
30.08.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
0
D
22.05.22
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
0
3
W
20.12.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
W
21.07.20
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
2
W
30.09.18
H2H
Sassuolo
AC Milan
1
4
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Sassuolo 4 missing
-
F. Cande
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Pieragnolo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Bakola
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
D. Boloca
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
AC Milan 1 missing
-
L. Modric
Missing Fixture Broken cheekbone
OUT