NORWAY ELITESERIEN
06.09.2026 15:00
Sarpsborg Stadion
Referee: M. Grotta
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
Claus Babo Niyukuri · Assist: Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
63'
Michael Opoku ↔ Sondre Sorlie
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
64'
Ghayas Zahid ↔ Petter Strand
Valerenga
🔄
69'
Claus Babo Niyukuri ↔ Peter Reinhardsen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
70'
Dennis Gjengaar ↔ Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
Valerenga
🔄
70'
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen ↔ Andreas Hansen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
70'
Odin Thiago Holm ↔ Gabriel Rajkovic
Valerenga
🟨
80'
Magnus Westergaard
Valerenga
80'
Sondre Sorlie
Sarpsborg 08 FF
83'
Petter Strand · Assist: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
Valerenga
🔄
88'
Carl Lange ↔ Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembe
Valerenga
🔄
88'
Olaus Jair Skarsem ↔ Eirik Wichne
Sarpsborg 08 FF
90+2'
Gabriel Rajkovic · Assist: Aaron Kiil Olsen
Valerenga
🟨
90+4'
Peter Reinhardsen
Sarpsborg 08 FF

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.42
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
1.95
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.42
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.08
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 62.3%
Draw 10.6%
Valerenga Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.61
Valerenga1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WWDLW
42 GF / 39 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
55 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
16
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
18
4
Shots on Goal
5.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 29 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 28 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Statistic Valerenga
13 Wins 12
6 Draws 5
10 Losses 11
42 Goals For 55
39 Goals Against 52
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
16 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 5.61
12.5 Total Shots 16.28
4.89 Corners 6.72
45.2% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Valerenga. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Valerenga in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valerenga having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF are currently 9 in the standings with 22 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 20:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Daniel Karlsbakk (5 goals), Andreas Hansen (3 goals), Sondre Sörli (2 goals), with creative support from Claus Niyukuri (4 assists), Sondre Sörli (3 assists), Sander Christiansen (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Valerenga Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Valerenga have collected 21 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Lucas Haren (7 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (4 goals), Carl Lange (3 goals), with creative support from Henrik Bjørdal (6 assists), Mathias Grundetjern (4 assists), Kolbeinn Finnsson (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 3 times, Valerenga won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:31 from Sarpsborg 08 FF's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-2-3-1 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3, Valerenga 3
H2H summary: Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 3, draws 2, Valerenga wins 8

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen