NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Sarpsborg Stadion
Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Timeline
Molde
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
D. Karlsbakk
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
10'
Eirik Hestad
Molde
🟨
26'
Bjorn Utvik
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45'
E. Hestad · Assist: S. Granaas
Molde
VAR
57'
Sondre Milian Granaas
Molde
59'
A. Hiim · Assist: N. Williams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
75'
V. Hoff ↔ C. Zady
Molde
🔄
75'
E. Hestad ↔ J. Christensen
Molde
🔄
79'
N. Williams ↔ E. Wichne
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
79'
M. Linnes ↔ O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Molde
🔄
88'
A. Nibe ↔ M. Odegaard
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
88'
D. Karlsbakk ↔ B. Gueye
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
89'
S. Granaas ↔ B. Isufi
Molde

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 41.5%
Draw 17.3%
Molde Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.38
Molde1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WWDLW
30 GF / 27 GA
Molde Molde
WLDWL
24 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
10
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
6
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 19 matches
Molde Molde 15 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Statistic Molde
9 Wins 7
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 4
30 Goals For 24
27 Goals Against 16
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
10 BTTS Yes 8
16 Over 1.5 10
11 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.22
12.22 Total Shots 11.78
5.22 Corners 4.22
48% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Molde's more proactive style and Sarpsborg 08 FF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Molde carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 16 points while Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 11 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Molde. Sarpsborg 08 FF have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 8 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 9:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Karlsbakk (2 goals), V. E. Halvorsen (2 goals), A. Nibe (1 goals), with creative support from V. E. Halvorsen (1 assists), C. Niyukuri (1 assists), S. Christiansen (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Molde Analysis

Molde come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 16 points after 9 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 15:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Breivik (6 goals), Fredrik Gulbrandsen (3 goals), Eirik Hestad (2 goals), with creative support from S. Hansen (2 assists), Eirik Hestad (1 assists), J. Abdullai (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-2-3-1 / Molde 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sarpsborg 08 FF 5, Molde 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4
Molde Away
18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen