BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
São Luiz
Match Timeline
Velo Clube
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
Nathan Zamith
São Luiz
58'
Jhoninha
Velo Clube
62'
Brandao
São Luiz
🟥
72'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
🟥
87'
São Luiz
São Luiz
120+1'
Lucas Hulk
São Luiz
120+1'
Sillas
Velo Clube
120+2'
Marcao
São Luiz
120+2'
Felipe Pacajus
Velo Clube
120+3'
Brandao
São Luiz
120+3'
Matheus Firmino
Velo Clube
120+4'
Lucas Hian
São Luiz
120+4'
Vinicius Toledo
Velo Clube
120+5'
Valber Junior
São Luiz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.6%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Luiz Win 63.6%
Draw 14.4%
Velo Clube Win 22%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Luiz0.97
Velo Clube1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Luiz São Luiz
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WLDWL
13 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
5
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Luiz São Luiz 14 matches
Velo Clube Velo Clube 13 matches
São Luiz Statistic Velo Clube
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
5 Losses 3
14 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together São Luiz's more proactive style and Velo Clube's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Velo Clube have the edge after taking the first leg 2-1, leaving São Luiz needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Velo Clube. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Velo Clube having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

São Luiz Analysis

São Luiz enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 11:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Velo Clube Analysis

Velo Clube come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 13 points from 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 10:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, São Luiz won 1 times, Velo Clube won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from São Luiz's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
H2H summary: São Luiz wins 1, draws 0, Velo Clube wins 1
Last matches: São Luiz
26.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
CSA
1
2
L
19.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
CSA
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
Velo Clube
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
2
L
27.03.26
Fri
São Luiz
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
Last matches: Velo Clube
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H: São Luiz vs Velo Clube
12.07.26
H2H
São Luiz
Velo Clube
2
1
W
04.07.26
H2H
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
L
Last matches: São Luiz
19.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
CSA
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
3
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
São Luiz
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
2
L
30.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Sao Jose
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Marcílio Dias
3
0
W
26.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
03.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
1
2
L
H2H at home: São Luiz
12.07.26
H2H
São Luiz
Velo Clube
2
1
W
Last matches: Velo Clube
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H away: Velo Clube
12.07.26
H2H
São Luiz
Velo Clube
2
1
L