BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Francisco Novelletto Neto
Sao Jose
Match Timeline
Marcílio Dias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
Igor Cassio
Sao Jose
69'
Bruno Boca
Marcílio Dias

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66%
-
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Jose Win 28.3%
Draw 5.7%
Marcílio Dias Win 66%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Jose0.43
Marcílio Dias1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Jose Sao Jose
WWDLW
3 GF / 7 GA
Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias
WLDWL
8 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
0.43
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.43
2
BTTS Yes
2
2
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Jose Sao Jose 7 matches
Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias 7 matches
Sao Jose Statistic Marcílio Dias
1 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 1
3 Goals For 8
7 Goals Against 3
0.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.43
2 BTTS Yes 2
3 Over 1.5 2
2 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Marcílio Dias's more proactive style and Sao Jose's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Marcílio Dias having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Marcílio Dias carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 14 points while Sao Jose sit 5 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Marcílio Dias look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Marcílio Dias.

Sao Jose Analysis

Placed 5 with 6 points from 7 outings, Sao Jose continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 3:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Caique Trindade (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marcílio Dias Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 14 points from 7 games, Marcílio Dias bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:3, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Davi Torres (2 goals), Manoel (2 goals), Cesinha (1 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Sao Jose won 0 times, Marcílio Dias won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Sao Jose's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
H2H summary: Sao Jose wins 0, draws 3, Marcílio Dias wins 1
Last matches: Sao Jose
18.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Treze
2
1
W
12.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Joinville
2
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
Last matches: Marcílio Dias
11.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
0
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
1
1
D
28.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
2
D
07.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Independiente FSJ
0
0
D
01.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
4
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Independiente FSJ
0
0
D
09.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
27.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Guarany de Bagé
1
1
D
14.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Barra
1
0
W
06.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Joinville
1
1
D
29.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
1
1
D
H2H: Sao Jose vs Marcílio Dias
24.05.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
18.04.26
H2H
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
2
1
L
27.07.25
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
19.04.25
H2H
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
0
0
D
Last matches: Sao Jose
18.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Treze
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Barra
3
3
D
31.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
São Luiz
3
0
W
27.04.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Joinville
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sao Jose
24.05.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
27.07.25
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
Last matches: Marcílio Dias
11.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
2
D
07.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Independiente FSJ
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
0
D
09.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
06.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Joinville
1
1
D
29.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
São Luiz
0
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Barra
1
2
L
27.04.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Guarany de Bagé
3
3
D
H2H away: Marcílio Dias
24.05.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
27.07.25
H2H
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)