BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Francisco Novelletto Neto
Sao Jose
Match Timeline
Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
76'
Willian Junior
Gama
90+4'
Andrey Nunes
Sao Jose

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43.7%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Jose Win 41%
Draw 15.3%
Gama Win 43.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Jose0.71
Gama1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Jose Sao Jose
WWDLW
11 GF / 12 GA
Gama Gama
WLDWL
31 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.69
Average Goals Scored
1.94
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
6
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Jose Sao Jose 16 matches
Gama Gama 16 matches
Sao Jose Statistic Gama
5 Wins 12
7 Draws 2
4 Losses 2
11 Goals For 31
12 Goals Against 12
0.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
6 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 13
3 Over 2.5 7
0 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Gama's more proactive style and Sao Jose's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Gama look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Gama carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 26 points while Sao Jose sit 4 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gama having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gama.

Sao Jose Analysis

Sao Jose enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. The return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gama Analysis

Gama enter this tie with a season profile built on 26 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Sao Jose won 0 times, Gama won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from Sao Jose's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
H2H summary: Sao Jose wins 0, draws 1, Gama wins 1
Last matches: Sao Jose
16.08.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Gama
0
4
L
26.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Treze
0
1
L
18.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Treze
2
1
W
12.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
Last matches: Gama
16.08.26
Ser
Gama
Sao Jose
4
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Gama
America-RN
3
2
W
19.07.26
Ser
Gama
America-RN
0
1
L
12.07.26
Ser
Gama
Porto Velho
2
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
Gama
Porto Velho
0
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Gama
Aparecidense
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
4
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
4
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Gama
Aparecidense
2
0
W
H2H: Sao Jose vs Gama
16.08.26
H2H
Gama
Sao Jose
4
0
L
08.08.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Gama
1
1
D
Last matches: Sao Jose
18.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Treze
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Barra
3
3
D
31.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
São Luiz
3
0
W
27.04.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Joinville
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sao Jose
08.08.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Gama
1
1
D
Last matches: Gama
19.07.26
Ser
Gama
America-RN
0
1
L
04.07.26
Ser
Gama
Porto Velho
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Gama
Aparecidense
2
0
W
H2H away: Gama
08.08.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Gama
1
1
D

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Gama Away
10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)