BRAZIL SERIE B
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Estadio Primeiro de Maio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
89.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 80.5%
Draw 12.5%
Avai Win 7%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.37
Avai1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
23 GF / 16 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
18 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
9
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
3.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 17 matches
Avai Avai 17 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Avai
7 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 9
23 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 24
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
9 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 3.06
10.53 Total Shots 10.47
3.53 Corners 3.35
46.9% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Avai. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. São Bernardo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 25 points compared to Avai in 18 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 7 with 25 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 21:14 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (2 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 13 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 16:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Sorriso (2 goals), Jean Lucas (1 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), DG (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
Last matches: São Bernardo
12.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Cuiaba
2
2
D
06.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Criciuma
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
CRB
3
2
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Atletico Goianiense
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
12.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Londrina
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ceara
1
1
D
Last matches: Avai
12.07.26
Ser
Avai
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Avai
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Avai
Criciuma
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Avai
Goias
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Avai
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Avai
Novorizontino
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avai
Operario-PR
0
0
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Avai
Juventude
2
0
W
Last matches: São Bernardo
12.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Cuiaba
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
1
2
L
Last matches: Avai
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 6 2 20:12 8 33
W W W W D
2 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W L W L
3 17 9 4 4 22:18 4 31
W W W W L
4 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L W W W D
5 17 8 5 4 17:8 9 29
W D W W W
6 17 8 4 5 20:17 3 28
L W W D L
7 17 7 5 5 23:16 7 26
D L L L D
8 17 6 8 3 21:15 6 26
D L L D D
9 17 7 4 6 18:23 -5 25
D W W L D
10 17 6 6 5 19:19 0 24
W L W D D
11 17 5 9 3 14:11 3 24
D W D L W
12 16 5 7 4 16:16 0 22
L W L D D
13 17 6 3 8 21:21 0 21
L D L L D
14 17 5 5 7 20:18 2 20
D W L W W
15 17 5 5 7 26:31 -5 20
D L W D D
16 16 5 3 8 24:24 0 18
W D W W L
17 16 4 5 7 15:20 -5 17
L L L D W
18
Avai Away
17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
W L L W L
19 17 2 2 13 11:33 -22 8
L L L L L
20 16 1 3 12 10:27 -17 6
L L L W L
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