BRAZIL SERIE B
17.07.2026 22:00
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: L. Guimaraes
São Bernardo
Match Timeline
Avai
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
35'
Jemerson · Assist: Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
🟨
45'
Zé Ricardo
Avai
🔄
46'
DG ↔ Quaresma
Avai
🔄
46'
Sorriso ↔ Juan Rocha
Avai
🟨
57'
Echaporã
São Bernardo
62'
Daniel Penha · Assist: Jean Lucas
Avai
🟨
64'
Augusto
São Bernardo
🟨
66'
Dudu Miraíma
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Dudu Miraima ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Echapora ↔ Pedrinho
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Foguinho ↔ Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🔄
79'
Ze Ricardo ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
79'
Jean Lucas ↔ Leo Gamalho
Avai
🔄
80'
Lucas Rian ↔ Daniel Amorim
São Bernardo
🔄
83'
Jefferson Maciel ↔ Joao Maistro
Avai

São Bernardo vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.4%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 76.4%
Draw 15.2%
Avai Win 8.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.37
Avai1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
23 GF / 16 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
18 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
9
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
3.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 17 matches
Avai Avai 17 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Avai
7 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 9
23 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 24
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
9 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 3.06
10.53 Total Shots 10.47
3.53 Corners 3.35
46.9% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. São Bernardo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 26 points compared to Avai in 18 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 7 with 26 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats with a 23:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

Avai sit 18 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Sorriso (2 goals), Jean Lucas (1 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Douglas Teixeira (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, São Bernardo won 0 times, Avai won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from São Bernardo's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.6%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: São Bernardo wins 0, draws 1, Avai wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17
Avai Away
29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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