MEXICO LIGA MX
27.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Corona

Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.7%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santos Laguna Win 21.3%
Draw 5.1%
CF Pachuca Win 73.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos Laguna1.09
CF Pachuca1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Laguna Santos Laguna
WWDLW
13 GF / 17 GA
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
WLDWL
18 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
5
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
6
3.89
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 12 matches
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 10 matches
Santos Laguna Statistic CF Pachuca
4 Wins 4
1 Draws 3
7 Losses 3
13 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 11
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
5 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 1
3.89 Shots On Goal 5
14.11 Total Shots 16.67
7.56 Corners 5.11
50.4% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by CF Pachuca's more proactive style and Santos Laguna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward CF Pachuca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos Laguna expected to line up in 3-4-3 and CF Pachuca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CF Pachuca having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Santos Laguna have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. CF Pachuca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 11 points while Santos Laguna sit 17 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Santos Laguna Analysis

Santos Laguna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 4 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Bullaude (1 goals), E. Aguirre (1 goals), Lucas Di Yorio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Bullaude (1 assists), Felipe Sánchez (1 assists), M. Cuevas (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

CF Pachuca Analysis

From their first 8 matches, CF Pachuca have collected 11 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 13:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Rondón (7 goals), O. Idrissi (1 goals), E. Montiel (1 goals), with creative support from O. Idrissi (2 assists), C. Sánchez (2 assists), E. Montiel (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos Laguna won 2 times, CF Pachuca won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:30 from Santos Laguna's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Santos Laguna 3-4-3 / CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Santos Laguna wins 2, draws 4, CF Pachuca wins 9

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 9 5 3 1 17:8 9 18
D W W D W
3 8 5 2 1 17:8 9 17
D L W W W
4 9 5 0 4 16:15 1 15
L W W W L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6 9 4 2 3 13:15 -2 14
D L D L W
7 8 4 1 3 14:10 4 13
W D L L W
8 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
10 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
11 9 3 3 3 12:13 -1 12
D L W L D
12 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
13 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
W L L W D
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L L D L D
16 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)