PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio de São Miguel
Referee: H. Carvalho
Santa Clara
Match Timeline
Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
24'
G. Paciencia ↔ Elias Manoel
Santa Clara
27'
Witi
Santa Clara
🟨
29'
Paulinho Bóia
Nacional
🔄
46'
Witi ↔ Gabriel Veron
Nacional
🔄
46'
Matheus Dias ↔ C. Labidi
Nacional
🟨
60'
João Aurélio
Nacional
🔄
62'
J. Aurelio ↔ A. Nunez
Nacional
🔄
64'
Andrey ↔ Isaac
Santa Clara
🔄
64'
Gustavo Klismahn ↔ Darlan
Santa Clara
🟨
80'
Darlan
Santa Clara
🔄
82'
Welinton Torrao ↔ Vinicius Lopes
Santa Clara
🔄
82'
Gabriel Silva ↔ Fernando
Santa Clara
🔄
82'
Daniel Junior ↔ L. Joao
Nacional
🔄
90+4'
F. Soares ↔ Watts
Nacional
90'
Elias Manoel · Assist: Fernando
Santa Clara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 39.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
39.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Clara Win 59.3%
Draw 13.7%
Nacional Win 27%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Clara1.12
Nacional1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WWDLW
37 GF / 44 GA
Nacional Nacional
WLDWL
35 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
16
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
14
2.97
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Clara Santa Clara 38 matches
Nacional Nacional 32 matches
Santa Clara Statistic Nacional
10 Wins 8
11 Draws 7
17 Losses 17
37 Goals For 35
44 Goals Against 43
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
16 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 10
2.97 Shots On Goal 4.31
9.87 Total Shots 12.81
4.18 Corners 4.41
42.4% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nacional.

Santa Clara Analysis

Santa Clara are currently 13 in the standings with 33 points from 32 matches. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 30:40 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gabriel Silva (6 goals), Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (3 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Welinton (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nacional Analysis

Nacional sit 14 with 31 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 35:43 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jesús Ramírez (16 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (5 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santa Clara won 8 times, Nacional won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:16 from Santa Clara's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Santa Clara 4-2-3-1 / Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Santa Clara wins 8, draws 5, Nacional wins 2
Stats
Santa Clara Santa Clara
Nacional Nacional
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 6
10 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Goal 1
8 Shots off Goal 8
3 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 0
304 Total passes 451
227 Passes accurate 365
1.37 expected_goals 0.61
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Santa Clara
Formation
Nacional
J. Afonso
J. Afonso
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila
S. Lima
S. Lima
P. Pacheco
P. Pacheco
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor
J. Tavares
J. Tavares
Andrey
Andrey
Welinton Torrao
Welinton Torrao
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva
G. Paciencia
G. Paciencia
Kaique Pereira
Kaique Pereira
J. Aurelio
J. Aurelio
Leo Santos
Leo Santos
C. Goncalves
C. Goncalves
Jose Gomes
Jose Gomes
F. Soares
F. Soares
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias
Witi
Witi
Daniel Junior
Daniel Junior
Paulinho Boia
Paulinho Boia
J. Ramirez
J. Ramirez
Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
50
J. Afonso
G
2
Diogo Calila
D
23
S. Lima
D
4
P. Pacheco
D
64
Paulo Victor
D
65
J. Tavares
M
78
Andrey
↓ 64'
M
49
Welinton Torrao
↓ 82'
M
77
Gustavo Klismahn
↓ 64'
M
10
Gabriel Silva
↓ 82'
M
39
G. Paciencia
↓ 24'
F
Substitutes
1
Gabriel Batista
G
21
F. Venancio
D
42
Lucas Soares
D
52
Isaac
↑ 64'
M
37
Darlan
↑ 64' 🟨 80'
M
7
Elias Manoel
⚽ 90' ↑ 24'
F
70
Vinicius Lopes
↑ 82'
F
94
H. Silva
D
26
Fernando
🎯 90' ↑ 82'
F
Nacional 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kaique Pereira
G
2
J. Aurelio
↓ 62' 🟨 60'
D
34
Leo Santos
D
33
C. Goncalves
D
5
Jose Gomes
D
22
F. Soares
↓ 90+4'
M
6
Matheus Dias
↓ 46'
M
7
Witi
⚽ 27' ↓ 46'
M
10
Daniel Junior
↓ 82'
M
11
Paulinho Boia
🟨 29'
M
9
J. Ramirez
F
Substitutes
50
K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
G
19
L. Joao
↑ 82'
F
27
Gabriel Veron
↑ 46'
F
15
C. Labidi
↑ 46'
M
30
Watts
↑ 90+4'
M
26
J. Silva
M
18
A. Sousa
M
99
Pablo Ruan
F
16
A. Nunez
↑ 62'
D
Last matches: Santa Clara
16.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
2
4
L
21.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
2
4
L
24.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
18.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
3
3
D
04.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
21.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
15.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
0
1
L
Last matches: Nacional
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Guimaraes
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
2
L
25.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
4
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Nacional
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
02.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
21.12.25
Pri
Nacional
AVS
2
2
D
15.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
3
1
W
H2H: Santa Clara vs Nacional
11.05.26
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
11.01.26
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
30.03.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
0
W
04.11.24
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
2
0
L
17.03.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
0
1
L
11.01.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
1
1
D
31.07.22
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
1
2
W
11.04.21
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
5
1
W
06.12.20
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
1
3
W
30.08.20
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
1
W
24.02.19
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
30.09.18
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
3
W
15.04.18
H2H
Nacional
Santa Clara
3
3
D
03.12.17
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D
Last matches: Santa Clara
26.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
2
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
2
4
L
18.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
1
L
04.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
21.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
06.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
1
2
L
25.10.25
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
2
0
W
27.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
1
2
L
20.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
2
1
W
31.08.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
17.08.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
14.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Larne
0
0
D
31.07.25
UEF
Santa Clara
NK Varazdin
2
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Clara
11.05.26
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
30.03.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
0
W
17.03.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
0
1
L
11.01.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D
11.04.21
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
5
1
W
30.08.20
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
1
W
24.02.19
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
03.12.17
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D
Last matches: Nacional
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
01.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Nacional
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
02.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Guimaraes
1
2
L
21.12.25
Pri
Nacional
AVS
2
2
D
07.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
1
1
D
28.09.25
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
0
W
13.09.25
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
30.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
2
0
W
17.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
1
1
D
H2H away: Nacional
11.05.26
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
L
30.03.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
0
L
17.03.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
0
1
W
11.01.24
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D
11.04.21
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
5
1
L
30.08.20
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
1
L
24.02.19
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
L
03.12.17
H2H
Santa Clara
Nacional
1
1
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D