BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck
Santa Catarina
Match Timeline
Sao Jose
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
67'
Tiago Pedra
Sao Jose
70'
Alex Goncalves
Santa Catarina
120+4'
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
120+4'
Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina
120+3'
Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina
120+3'
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
120+2'
Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina
120+2'
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
120+1'
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
120+1'
Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.8%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Catarina Win 72.8%
Draw 4.3%
Sao Jose Win 22.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Catarina1.2
Sao Jose0.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
WWDLW
16 GF / 10 GA
Sao Jose Sao Jose
WLDWL
7 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.64
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Catarina Santa Catarina 11 matches
Sao Jose Sao Jose 11 matches
Santa Catarina Statistic Sao Jose
6 Wins 3
2 Draws 5
3 Losses 3
16 Goals For 7
10 Goals Against 9
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.64
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
5 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Santa Catarina's more proactive style and Sao Jose's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sao Jose. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Santa Catarina come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Santa Catarina arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 19 points compared to Sao Jose in 4 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sao Jose having the stronger overall control.

Santa Catarina Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Santa Catarina arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 19 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:9 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by Alex Goncalves (3 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sao Jose Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Sao Jose arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 13 points after 10 matches. The return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Santa Catarina won 0 times, Sao Jose won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Santa Catarina's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: Santa Catarina wins 0, draws 2, Sao Jose wins 0
Last matches: Santa Catarina
21.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
0
1
L
Last matches: Sao Jose
12.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Joinville
2
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
30.06.25
Ser
Sao Jose
São Luiz
2
1
W
H2H: Santa Catarina vs Sao Jose
27.06.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
21.06.26
H2H
Sao Jose
Santa Catarina
1
1
D
Last matches: Santa Catarina
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Catarina
27.06.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
Last matches: Sao Jose
12.07.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Blumenau
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Jose
Independiente FSJ
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Joinville
2
0
W
30.06.25
Ser
Sao Jose
São Luiz
2
1
W
08.06.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Azuriz
3
1
W
24.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Barra
1
1
D
11.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
03.05.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Brasil DE Pelotas
3
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Sao Jose
Marcílio Dias
0
0
D
H2H away: Sao Jose
27.06.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)