BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck
Santa Catarina
Match Timeline
Joinville
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
49'
Pedro Botelho
Santa Catarina

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Catarina Win 54.1%
Draw 16.2%
Joinville Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Catarina1.17
Joinville1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
WWDLW
9 GF / 8 GA
Joinville Joinville
WLDWL
7 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
2
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Catarina Santa Catarina 6 matches
Joinville Joinville 6 matches
Santa Catarina Statistic Joinville
2 Wins 3
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 1
9 Goals For 7
8 Goals Against 4
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
2 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Joinville having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Joinville. Joinville carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 11 points while Santa Catarina sit 5 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Santa Catarina Analysis

Santa Catarina come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 7 points from 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 9:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Alex Goncalves (2 goals), Mendes (2 goals), Ze Leandro (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Joinville Analysis

Joinville come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 11 points from 6 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 7:4 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Erverson (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Santa Catarina won 2 times, Joinville won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:7 from Santa Catarina's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
H2H summary: Santa Catarina wins 2, draws 0, Joinville wins 2

Lineups

No lineup data available
Last matches: Santa Catarina
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
0
1
L
Last matches: Joinville
07.06.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Santa Catarina
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
0
W
10.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
4
L
03.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Sao Jose
0
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Azuriz
0
0
D
06.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
30.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Barra
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
1
W
08.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
26.05.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
0
W
H2H: Santa Catarina vs Joinville
16.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
25.04.26
H2H
Joinville
Santa Catarina
2
1
L
18.01.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
3
1
W
16.02.25
H2H
Joinville
Santa Catarina
4
3
L
Last matches: Santa Catarina
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Catarina
16.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
18.01.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
3
1
W
Last matches: Joinville
07.06.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Azuriz
0
0
D
30.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Barra
0
1
L
08.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
1
L
26.05.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Joinville
Marcílio Dias
0
1
L
27.04.25
Ser
Joinville
Sao Jose
1
1
D
H2H away: Joinville
16.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
L
18.01.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Joinville
3
1
L

Standings

Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A15
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W