JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Referee: Y. Sutani
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match Timeline
Nagoya Grampus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
S. Nakamura · Assist: H. Kawabe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
VAR
35'
Sota Nakamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
42'
Kawabe Hayao
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45'
Y. Yamagishi · Assist: T. Takamine
Nagoya Grampus
45'
H. Kawabe · Assist: S. Nakano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
46'
S. Nakano · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
55'
T. Shiotani ↔ T. Matsumoto
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
55'
M. Kato ↔ R. Germain
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
56'
A. Suzuki · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
59'
T. Uchida ↔ T. Morishima
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
59'
R. Izumi ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
67'
T. Morishima
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
74'
A. Suzuki ↔ K. Kinoshita
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
81'
S. Nakamura ↔ N. Maeda
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
81'
H. Kawabe ↔ Y. Chajima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 44.5%
Draw 13.8%
Nagoya Grampus Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.5
Nagoya Grampus1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WWDLW
28 GF / 23 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
29 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
12
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
11
5
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 17 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Statistic Nagoya Grampus
7 Wins 8
4 Draws 5
7 Losses 4
28 Goals For 29
23 Goals Against 24
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
12 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
5 Shots On Goal 4.71
16.24 Total Shots 13.59
6 Corners 5.24
54.9% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nagoya Grampus.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4 with 27 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 27:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Suzuki (4 goals), K. Kinoshita (3 goals), M. Kato (3 goals), with creative support from S. Higashi (5 assists), A. Suzuki (3 assists), M. Kato (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 31 points from 17 games, Nagoya Grampus bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 31:27, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Y. Yamagishi (9 goals), Y. Kimura (8 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (7 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 6 times, Nagoya Grampus won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:23 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.2%)
Predicted formations: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 6, draws 1, Nagoya Grampus wins 8
Stats
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 6
12 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 12
4 Shots outsidebox 1
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
344 Total passes 541
257 Passes accurate 449
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Formation
Nagoya Grampus
I. Ouchi
I. Ouchi
T. Shiotani
T. Shiotani
T. Yamasaki
T. Yamasaki
S. Sasaki
S. Sasaki
S. Nakano
🎯
S. Nakano
H. Kawabe
🎯
H. Kawabe
N. Arai
N. Arai
S. Higashi
🎯
S. Higashi
M. Kato
M. Kato
S. Nakamura
S. Nakamura
A. Suzuki
A. Suzuki
D. Schmidt
D. Schmidt
Y. Nogami
Y. Nogami
H. Fujii
H. Fujii
S. Tokumoto
S. Tokumoto
Y. Asano
Y. Asano
T. Uchida
T. Uchida
T. Takamine
🎯
T. Takamine
K. Nakayama
K. Nakayama
R. Izumi
R. Izumi
Y. Kimura
Y. Kimura
Y. Yamagishi
Y. Yamagishi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
99
I. Ouchi
G
33
T. Shiotani
↓ 55'
D
3
T. Yamasaki
D
19
S. Sasaki
D
15
S. Nakano
⚽ 46' 🎯 45'
M
6
H. Kawabe
⚽ 45' 🎯 33' ↓ 81' 🟨 42'
M
13
N. Arai
M
24
S. Higashi
🎯 46' 🎯 56'
M
11
M. Kato
↓ 55'
39
S. Nakamura
⚽ 33' ↓ 81'
F
10
A. Suzuki
⚽ 56' ↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
21
Y. Tanaka
G
41
N. Maeda
↑ 81'
F
17
K. Kinoshita
↑ 74'
F
25
Y. Chajima
↑ 81'
M
16
T. Shichi
D
14
T. Matsumoto
↑ 55'
M
9
R. Germain
↑ 55'
F
40
M. Ohara
M
35
Y. Nakajima
M
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
D. Schmidt
G
2
Y. Nogami
D
13
H. Fujii
D
55
S. Tokumoto
D
9
Y. Asano
M
17
T. Uchida
↓ 59'
M
31
T. Takamine
🎯 45'
M
27
K. Nakayama
M
7
R. Izumi
↓ 59'
F
22
Y. Kimura
F
11
Y. Yamagishi
⚽ 45'
F
Substitutes
35
A. Pisano
G
18
K. Nagai
F
14
T. Morishima
⚽ 67' ↑ 59'
M
41
M. Ono
M
3
Y. Sato
D
20
K. Mikuni
D
33
T. Kikuchi
M
19
H. Koda
↑ 59'
M
30
S. Sugiura
F
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
06.06.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
17.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
02.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
0
1
L
29.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
25.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
27.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
2
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
06.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
3
1
W
18.01.26
Fri
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FC Tokyo
3
4
L
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
23.05.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
W
18.03.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
L
27.08.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
W
28.06.25
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
20.04.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
L
08.09.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
04.09.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
W
17.08.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
W
06.05.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
2
3
L
30.09.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
18.06.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
L
20.05.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
L
26.03.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
17.09.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
0
D
28.05.22
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
W
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
30.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
14.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
2
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
23.05.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
W
28.06.25
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
08.09.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
06.05.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
2
3
L
30.09.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
26.03.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
28.05.22
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
W
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H away: Nagoya Grampus
23.05.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
L
28.06.25
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
W
08.09.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
W
06.05.24
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
2
3
W
30.09.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
L
26.03.23
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
W
28.05.22
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
L

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)