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26.09.2026 16:00
San Marino Stadium
Referee: Nathan Verboomen, Belgium
San Marino
Match Timeline
Finland
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Joel Pohjanpalo
Finland
⚽
14'
Adrian Svanback · Assist: Leo Walta
Finland
⚽
33'
Benjamin Källman · Assist: Adrian Svanback
Finland
🟨
43'
Adam Markhiev
Finland
🔄
46'
Adam Markhiev ↔ Santeri Väänänen
Finland
🔄
46'
Ville Koski ↔ Tony Miettinen
Finland
🔄
46'
Topi Keskinen ↔ Adam Ståhl
Finland
⚽
50'
Leo Walta
Finland
🟥
51'
Alessandro Golinucci
San Marino
⚽
55'
Leo Walta · Assist: Juho Lähteenmäki
Finland
🔄
59'
Nicolas Giacopetti ↔ Samuel Pancotti
San Marino
🔄
59'
Lorenzo Capicchioni ↔ Marcello Mularoni
San Marino
🔄
59'
Benjamin Källman ↔ Robin Lod
Finland
🔄
70'
Filippo Fabbri ↔ Enea Dell Balda
San Marino
🔄
70'
Samuele Zannoni ↔ Simone Giocondi
San Marino
🔄
70'
Leo Walta ↔ Onni Valakari
Finland
⚽
79'
Joel Pohjanpalo · Assist: Adrian Svanback
Finland
🔄
79'
Michele Cevoli ↔ Giacomo Benvenuti
San Marino
🟨
86'
Cristian Meloni
San Marino
⚽
88'
Joel Pohjanpalo
Finland

San Marino vs Finland Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
67.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
84.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Marino Win 14.6%
Draw 67.3%
Finland Win 18.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Marino1.65
Finland0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Marino San Marino
WWDLW
3 GF / 6 GA
Finland Finland
WLDWL
1 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
0.5
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
3
3
BTTS Yes
1
3
Over 2.5
2
0.75
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Marino San Marino 4 matches
Finland Finland 2 matches
San Marino Statistic Finland
0 Wins 0
1 Draws 0
3 Losses 2
3 Goals For 1
6 Goals Against 6
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 3
3 BTTS Yes 1
3 Over 1.5 2
3 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 1
0.75 Shots On Goal 1.5
0 Total Shots 8.5
1.25 Corners 5.5
12.5% Ball Possession 40%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, San Marino won 0 times, Finland won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:8 from San Marino's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: San Marino 4-3-1-2 / Finland 4-3-3
H2H summary: San Marino wins 0, draws 0, Finland wins 2

Standings

League C - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 3 0 1 8:3 5 9
W L W W
2 4 2 1 1 5:2 3 7
W W D L
3 4 2 1 1 9:2 7 7
L W D W
4 4 0 0 4 1:16 -15 0
L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs