CHILE PRIMERA B
13.09.2026 18:00
Estadio Carlos Dittborn

San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.98
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.5%
1.12
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.98
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.12
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
San Marcos de Arica Win 51.9%
Draw 21.6%
Curico Unido Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Marcos de Arica1.16
Curico Unido1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
WWDLW
30 GF / 36 GA
Curico Unido Curico Unido
WLDWL
33 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
15
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica 30 matches
Curico Unido Curico Unido 31 matches
San Marcos de Arica Statistic Curico Unido
8 Wins 9
10 Draws 12
12 Losses 10
30 Goals For 33
36 Goals Against 43
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
15 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between San Marcos de Arica's more proactive style and Curico Unido's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Curico Unido. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Curico Unido having the stronger overall control.

San Marcos de Arica Analysis

With 30 points from 22 games and a place of 9, San Marcos de Arica still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 25:20, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Curico Unido Analysis

Curico Unido approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 24 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 20:34 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, San Marcos de Arica won 0 times, Curico Unido won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:13 from San Marcos de Arica's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.4%)
Predicted formations: San Marcos de Arica 4-3-2-1 / Curico Unido -
H2H summary: San Marcos de Arica wins 0, draws 1, Curico Unido wins 4

Standings

Primera B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 12 8 4 40:25 15 44
L W W W D
2 24 11 9 4 42:27 15 42
D L W L W
3 24 10 8 6 41:24 17 38
D L W W D
4 23 10 8 5 36:28 8 38
W W L W D
5 24 10 7 7 36:33 3 37
W W D W D
6 24 10 7 7 39:38 1 37
D D L W W
7 24 10 5 9 31:31 0 35
L D L W W
8 24 10 4 10 26:29 -3 34
L W L L D
9 24 8 9 7 28:23 5 33
L W L L L
10 24 8 7 9 39:34 5 31
W L W L D
11 24 8 7 9 33:38 -5 31
D L L L W
12 24 6 9 9 22:35 -13 27
W L D W L
13 24 5 10 9 31:29 2 25
L L L W D
14 23 5 7 11 15:37 -22 22
D D L L W
15 24 4 9 11 26:38 -12 21
W D D L L
16 24 4 6 14 22:38 -16 18
W W W W L