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24.10.2026 22:15
Estadio Pedro Bidegain

San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.8%
- ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 61.8%
Draw 9.7%
Newells Old Boys Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.05
Newells Old Boys0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
28 GF / 28 GA
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys
WLDWL
26 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.9
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
10
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
9
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 32 matches
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 29 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Newells Old Boys
11 Wins 7
11 Draws 11
10 Losses 11
28 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 38
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
10 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 21
6 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
15 Clean Sheets 7
12 Failed To Score 11
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.11
10.93 Total Shots 9.57
3.8 Corners 3.71
48.5% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Newells Old Boys. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Newells Old Boys in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Newells Old Boys having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo are currently 7 in the standings with 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Auzmendi (4 goals), A. Cuello (2 goals), with creative support from R. Auzmendi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Newells Old Boys Analysis

Newells Old Boys approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 15 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 15:27 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on I. Ramírez (3 goals), M. Cóccaro (3 goals), J. Russo (1 goals), with creative support from J. Russo (2 assists), I. Ramírez (1 assists), W. Mazzantti (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 3 times, Newells Old Boys won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:15 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2 / Newells Old Boys 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 3, draws 7, Newells Old Boys wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L D W L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W L D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D D L W D
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W D W W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W W L L D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W W D W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L W L D L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D D L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L D W D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase