🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.07.2026 02:30
PayPal Park
Referee: Elijio Arreguin, USA
San Jose Earthquakes
Match Timeline
Orlando City SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
D. Brekalo · Assist: E. Atuesta
Orlando City SC
29'
I. Angulo · Assist: E. Atuesta
Orlando City SC
🟨
36'
Eduard Atuesta
Orlando City SC
🟨
45+1'
Timo Werner
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
46'
N. Fernandez ↔ J. Skahan
San Jose Earthquakes
48'
A. Griezmann · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
52'
Ronaldo Vieira
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
59'
Tiago ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🟨
67'
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
73'
B. Ojeda · Assist: E. Atuesta
Orlando City SC
🔄
74'
J. Ricketts ↔ P. Marie
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
74'
T. Werner ↔ D. Johnson
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
79'
E. Atuesta ↔ Luis Otavio
Orlando City SC
🔄
79'
A. Gomez ↔ B. Rhein
Orlando City SC
🔄
79'
I. Angulo ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC
🟨
80'
Harvey Sarajian
Orlando City SC
🔄
81'
R. Vieira ↔ J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
84'
J. Ellis ↔ Z. Taifi
Orlando City SC
🔄
86'
B. Leroux ↔ I. Harkes
San Jose Earthquakes
🟨
90+4'
Daniel Munie
San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.7%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Jose Earthquakes Win 72.7%
Draw 4.8%
Orlando City SC Win 22.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Jose Earthquakes2.37
Orlando City SC1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WWDLW
41 GF / 21 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
30 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
2.05
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
2.84
11
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
15
5.6
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 20 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 19 matches
San Jose Earthquakes Statistic Orlando City SC
13 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
5 Losses 11
41 Goals For 30
21 Goals Against 54
2.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 2.84
11 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 5
5.6 Shots On Goal 4.67
13.93 Total Shots 11.13
7.33 Corners 4
46.6% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by San Jose Earthquakes's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Jose Earthquakes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Orlando City SC in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. San Jose Earthquakes arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 32 points compared to Orlando City SC in 12 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Orlando City SC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

San Jose Earthquakes arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 32 points after 15 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 34:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Judd (11 goals), O. Bouda (5 goals), T. Werner (4 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (4 assists), P. Marie (4 assists), T. Werner (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 14 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 23:44 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Ojeda (11 goals), D. McGuire (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from I. Angulo (4 assists), A. Gomez (3 assists), J. Ellis (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1 times, Orlando City SC won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:17 from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1 / Orlando City SC 3-4-3
Missing players: San Jose Earthquakes 4, Orlando City SC 4
H2H summary: San Jose Earthquakes wins 1, draws 3, Orlando City SC wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)