🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.8%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Jose Earthquakes Win 8.8%
Draw 19.4%
Los Angeles FC Win 71.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Jose Earthquakes1.43
Los Angeles FC1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WWDLW
51 GF / 42 GA
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
WLDWL
64 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
17
BTTS Yes
18
16
Over 2.5
20
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 30 matches
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 38 matches
San Jose Earthquakes Statistic Los Angeles FC
15 Wins 18
5 Draws 11
10 Losses 9
51 Goals For 64
42 Goals Against 39
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
17 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 20
13 Over 3.5 12
9 Clean Sheets 17
5 Failed To Score 6
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.76
12.84 Total Shots 13.97
5.84 Corners 6.12
46.9% Ball Possession 47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Los Angeles FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Jose Earthquakes expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Los Angeles FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Los Angeles FC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

San Jose Earthquakes come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 38 points from 24 matches. The record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 43:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Judd (10 goals), O. Bouda (4 goals), Timo Werner (4 goals), with creative support from N. Tsakiris (7 assists), Paul Marie (4 assists), Beau Leroux (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Los Angeles FC Analysis

Placed 3 with 40 points from 25 outings, Los Angeles FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 40:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Bouanga (10 goals), Son Heung-Min (4 goals), David Martínez Morales (4 goals), with creative support from Son Heung-Min (7 assists), D. Bouanga (3 assists), T. Boyd (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 4 times, Los Angeles FC won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:33 from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 14 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.2%)
Predicted formations: San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1 / Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: San Jose Earthquakes wins 4, draws 2, Los Angeles FC wins 8

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)