BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Lourival Gomes
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Match Timeline
Velo Clube
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Elias
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
🟥
81'
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Win 71.2%
Draw 12.3%
Velo Clube Win 16.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sampaio Corrêa RJ0.93
Velo Clube0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
WWDLW
7 GF / 9 GA
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WLDWL
7 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1
4
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ 8 matches
Velo Clube Velo Clube 8 matches
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Statistic Velo Clube
2 Wins 2
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 2
7 Goals For 7
9 Goals Against 8
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
2 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Velo Clube having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Velo Clube. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Analysis

Sampaio Corrêa RJ come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 8 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 6:8 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Velo Clube Analysis

Placed 3 with 9 points from 7 outings, Velo Clube continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 6:7 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Lucas Duni (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Sampaio Corrêa RJ won 1 times, Velo Clube won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Sampaio Corrêa RJ's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
H2H summary: Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins 1, draws 0, Velo Clube wins 1
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H: Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Velo Clube
30.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
11.04.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
L
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
H2H at home: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
30.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H away: Velo Clube
30.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
L

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)