GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
30.08.2026 15:00
26 May Stadium
Referee: B. Bregadze
Samgurali
Match Timeline
Rustavi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
N. Chikovani
Rustavi
🟨
16'
L. Gilmore
Samgurali
🟨
27'
David Oliveira
Rustavi
🔄
66'
A. Gujabidze ↔ K. Kakashvili
Rustavi
🔄
66'
K. Ceijas ↔ M. Gambos
Rustavi
🔄
66'
Jean ↔ L. Parkadze
Rustavi
68'
V. Patsatsia
Rustavi
🟨
75'
O. Patarkatsishvili
Samgurali
🔄
76'
T. Gaprindashvili ↔ N. Tsetskhladze
Samgurali
🔄
76'
I. Siradze ↔ D. Krasovski
Samgurali
🔄
76'
I. Bidzinashvili ↔ Gean Rodrigues
Samgurali
82'
N. Tsetskhladze · Assist: G. Gogia
Samgurali
🔄
83'
Y. Nakano ↔ N. Japaridze
Rustavi
🔄
86'
S. Kessi ↔ I. Iakobidze
Rustavi
🟨
90+2'
L. Gilmore
Samgurali
🟥
90+2'
L. Gilmore
Samgurali

Samgurali vs Rustavi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 47.1%
Draw 4.6%
Rustavi Win 48.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.33
Rustavi1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
48 GF / 49 GA
Rustavi Rustavi
WLDWL
38 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1
20
BTTS Yes
15
19
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 31 matches
Rustavi Rustavi 29 matches
Samgurali Statistic Rustavi
13 Wins 14
7 Draws 7
11 Losses 8
48 Goals For 38
49 Goals Against 29
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1
20 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 20
19 Over 2.5 16
12 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Rustavi's more proactive style and Samgurali's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rustavi. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Rustavi look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rustavi having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Samgurali Analysis

So far, Samgurali have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, while the 31:40 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rustavi Analysis

Rustavi come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 41 points after 22 matches. The return of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 29:18, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 5 times, Rustavi won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Samgurali's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali 4-2-3-1 / Rustavi 4-3-3
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 5, draws 2, Rustavi wins 5

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 7 6 32:21 11 46
W D L D W
2 26 12 8 6 43:34 9 44
D W W W W
3 25 11 9 5 40:27 13 42
W D D W L
4 24 12 4 8 33:27 6 40
W L W L L
5 25 11 4 10 33:27 6 37
D W W L D
6 26 9 9 8 41:31 10 36
W D D L D
7 26 9 5 12 36:49 -13 32
L L L D W
8 26 6 10 10 24:36 -12 28
L D L W L
9 26 5 10 11 33:39 -6 25
L D D L L
10 26 2 10 14 19:43 -24 16
L D D W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2