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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
11.10.2026 11:30
Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava
Samgurali
Match Timeline
Gagra
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Irakli Bidzinashvili
Samgurali
🔄
46'
Guram Goshteliani ↔ Illia skrypnyk
Gagra
🔄
46'
davit mujiri ↔ Andrey andreychuk
Gagra
⚽
46'
Tornike·Gaprindashvili · Assist: Irakli Bidzinashvili
Samgurali
🔄
58'
pedro borges ↔ Richmond Adeyeye
Gagra
🔄
58'
Luka Gurchiani ↔ Givi khachidze
Gagra
🔄
71'
Tornike·Gaprindashvili ↔ niko tsetskhladze
Samgurali
🔄
71'
Irakli Bidzinashvili ↔ David krasovsky
Samgurali
🔄
71'
Irakli Siradze ↔ Cebolinha claudio
Samgurali
🔄
74'
Luqman Gilmore ↔ zaza iashvili
Samgurali
🟨
75'
Saba Zoidze
Gagra
🔄
78'
alexander feikrishvili ↔ Cesar Vinicius
Gagra
🔄
87'
rodrigues gean ↔ gigi gogia
Samgurali
⚽
88'
Cebolinha claudio · Assist: Lasha Shergelashvili
Samgurali

Samgurali vs Gagra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 83.2%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.69
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.87
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
83.2%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.69 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.87 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 42.1%
Draw 41.1%
Gagra Win 16.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.49
Gagra1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
55 GF / 61 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
37 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
25
BTTS Yes
20
23
Over 2.5
15
4.56
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 36 matches
Gagra Gagra 34 matches
Samgurali Statistic Gagra
13 Wins 8
8 Draws 14
15 Losses 12
55 Goals For 37
61 Goals Against 49
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
25 BTTS Yes 20
29 Over 1.5 28
23 Over 2.5 15
15 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 10
4.56 Shots On Goal 3.81
4.56 Total Shots 3.56
5.41 Corners 4.37
50.9% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Samgurali expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gagra in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gagra having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Samgurali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gagra.

Samgurali Analysis

With 32 points from 27 games and a place of 7, Samgurali still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 13 defeats with a 38:52 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gagra Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Gagra have collected 29 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 25:37 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 7 times, Gagra won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:10 from Samgurali's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali 4-2-3-1 / Gagra 4-4-2
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 7, draws 6, Gagra wins 2

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 47:36 11 50
W W D W W
2 28 14 7 7 35:24 11 49
W L W D L
3 28 15 4 9 40:31 9 49
W L W W W
4 28 13 9 6 45:31 14 48
L W W W D
5 28 12 4 12 39:33 6 40
L W L D W
6 28 9 10 9 46:37 9 37
D L W D D
7 28 10 5 13 41:52 -11 35
W L L L L
8
Gagra Away
28 6 11 11 25:40 -15 29
L D L D L
9 28 5 11 12 37:46 -9 26
D L L D D
10 28 2 11 15 21:46 -25 17
L D L D D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2