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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
19.09.2026 16:00
26 May Stadium
Referee: G. Kruashvili
Samgurali
Match Timeline
Dinamo Tbilisi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
L. Gegetchkori
Samgurali
🟨
27'
Nika Ninua
Dinamo Tbilisi
⚽
28'
M. Do Couto · Assist: P. Psaltis
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
34'
I. Siradze ↔ N. Tsetskhladze
Samgurali
⚽
37'
K. Doltmurziev · Assist: N. Ninua
Dinamo Tbilisi
⚽
42'
L. Gegetchkori · Assist: Gean Rodrigues
Samgurali
🔄
59'
Welton ↔ B. Osei
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
59'
G. Kharaishvili ↔ L. Houri
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
63'
Claudio Cebolinha ↔ I. Bidzinashvili
Samgurali
🟨
65'
Lucas flores
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
66'
K. Doltmurziev ↔ M. Vatsadze
Dinamo Tbilisi
⚽
74'
N. Ninua
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
76'
M. Do Couto ↔ T. Kvaratskhelia
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
76'
J. Kankava ↔ K. Kakashvili
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
80'
T. Gaprindashvili ↔ N. Khorkheli
Samgurali
🔄
80'
L. Shergelashvili ↔ D. Krasovski
Samgurali
🔄
80'
L. Gegetchkori ↔ G. Gogia
Samgurali
🟨
90+1'
Nika Khorkheli
Samgurali
🟨
90+6'
Marios Pourzitidis
Dinamo Tbilisi
🟨
90+6'
Luqman Gilmore
Samgurali

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 33.7%
Draw 20%
Dinamo Tbilisi Win 46.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.46
Dinamo Tbilisi1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
53 GF / 58 GA
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
WLDWL
55 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.51
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
24
BTTS Yes
22
22
Over 2.5
20
4.54
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 35 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 36 matches
Samgurali Statistic Dinamo Tbilisi
13 Wins 14
8 Draws 12
14 Losses 10
53 Goals For 55
58 Goals Against 50
1.51 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
24 BTTS Yes 22
28 Over 1.5 28
22 Over 2.5 20
14 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 10
4.54 Shots On Goal 4.82
4.27 Total Shots 4.25
5.46 Corners 4.68
50.6% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Dinamo Tbilisi's more proactive style and Samgurali's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dinamo Tbilisi. Samgurali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Samgurali expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Dinamo Tbilisi in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dinamo Tbilisi having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Samgurali Analysis

Samgurali sit 7 with 32 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats with a 34:46 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dinamo Tbilisi Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 39 points after 24 matches. The record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 36:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 4 times, Dinamo Tbilisi won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:26 from Samgurali's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali 4-1-4-1 / Dinamo Tbilisi 4-3-3
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 4, draws 4, Dinamo Tbilisi wins 7

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 47:36 11 50
W W D W W
2 28 14 7 7 35:24 11 49
W L W D L
3 28 15 4 9 40:31 9 49
W L W W W
4 28 13 9 6 45:31 14 48
L W W W D
5 28 12 4 12 39:33 6 40
L W L D W
6 28 9 10 9 46:37 9 37
D L W D D
7 28 10 5 13 41:52 -11 35
W L L L L
8 28 6 11 11 25:40 -15 29
L D L D L
9 28 5 11 12 37:46 -9 26
D L L D D
10 28 2 11 15 21:46 -25 17
L D L D D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2