GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
25.04.2026 16:00
26 May Stadium
Referee: G. Kikacheishvili
Samgurali
Match Timeline
Dinamo Tbilisi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
M. Vatsadze
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
46'
N. Tsetskhladze ↔ Jefinho
Samgurali
🟨
49'
M. Shatirishvili
Samgurali
🔄
52'
N. Khorkheli ↔ Claudio Cebolinha
Samgurali
🔄
58'
N. K. Donkor ↔ G. Zaria
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
59'
R. Monteiro ↔ G. Kharebashvili
Dinamo Tbilisi
62'
M. Vatsadze · Assist: R. Ramos
Dinamo Tbilisi
🟨
63'
G. Kharebashvili
Dinamo Tbilisi
🟨
63'
Ryan
Samgurali
🔄
65'
M. Vatsadze ↔ I. Siradze
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
66'
T. Berelidze ↔ O. Aptsiauri
Samgurali
🔄
66'
J. Carlos ↔ L. Papava
Samgurali
🟨
67'
G. Zaria
Dinamo Tbilisi
🟥
69'
I. Siradze
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
77'
Wellissol ↔ G. Gogolashvili
Samgurali
82'
Ryan · Assist: L. Shergelashvili
Samgurali
🟨
90+3'
M. Makatsaria
Dinamo Tbilisi
🟨
90+8'
N. Ninua
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
90+3'
R. Ramos ↔ G. Lomidze
Dinamo Tbilisi

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 44.5%
Draw 31.5%
Dinamo Tbilisi Win 24%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.42
Dinamo Tbilisi1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
23 GF / 24 GA
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
WLDWL
13 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
0.87
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
11
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 16 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 15 matches
Samgurali Statistic Dinamo Tbilisi
5 Wins 2
5 Draws 7
6 Losses 6
23 Goals For 13
24 Goals Against 21
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
11 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dinamo Tbilisi. Samgurali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Dinamo Tbilisi having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Samgurali Analysis

Samgurali approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 8 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 6:8 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Wellissol (2 goals), Claudio Cebolinha (1 goals), G. Gogolashvili (1 goals), with creative support from N. Khorkheli (1 assists), L. Papava (1 assists), N. Tsetskhladze (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dinamo Tbilisi Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi are currently 8 in the standings with 8 points from 8 matches. The record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 5:5 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Monteiro (2 goals), G. Gvasalia (1 goals), K. Doltmurziev (1 goals), with creative support from N. Ninua (2 assists), G. Gvasalia (1 assists), B. Osei (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 4 times, Dinamo Tbilisi won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:26 from Samgurali's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali - / Dinamo Tbilisi 4-4-2
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 4, draws 4, Dinamo Tbilisi wins 7

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 12 6 5 30:19 11 42
D W W W L
2 22 10 7 5 35:26 9 37
W L W W W
3 23 10 7 6 38:32 6 37
W W W D L
4 21 10 4 7 30:24 6 34
L L W L D
5 23 9 5 9 32:41 -9 32
D W L W D
6 23 8 7 8 36:27 9 31
L D W L D
7 22 9 3 10 27:24 3 30
L D W W W
8 23 6 9 8 23:30 -7 27
W L D D D
9 23 5 8 10 30:35 -5 23
L L D L D
10 23 2 8 13 17:40 -23 14
W L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2