GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: B. Ninua
Rustavi
Match Timeline
Gagra
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
37'
I. Skrypnyk
Gagra
🔄
46'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ Vinicius Cesar
Gagra
56'
Jean
Rustavi
🔄
57'
D. Mujiri ↔ A. Andreychuk
Gagra
🔄
64'
Y. Nakano ↔ K. Kakashvili
Rustavi
🔄
67'
G. Goshteliani ↔ G. Khachidze
Gagra
🔄
70'
S. Zoidze ↔ L. Gurchiani
Gagra
🔄
74'
Jean ↔ L. Parkadze
Rustavi
🔄
75'
V. Arsic ↔ R. Adeyeye
Gagra
🟨
80'
K. Kakashvili
Rustavi
85'
S. Kessi
Rustavi
🔄
87'
P. Osei ↔ M. Gambos
Rustavi
🔄
87'
K. Ceijas ↔ I. Iakobidze
Rustavi
🔄
87'
S. Kessi ↔ G. Chkheidze
Rustavi
🟨
89'
G. Chkheidze
Rustavi
🟨
90'
A. Gujabidze
Rustavi
90+4'
David Oliveira · Assist: M. Gambos
Rustavi

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.1%
Odds 1.77
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.81
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.1%
1.77
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.81
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.92
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.68
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Rustavi Win 71.1%
Draw 4.6%
Gagra Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rustavi1.31
Gagra1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rustavi Rustavi
WWDLW
35 GF / 29 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
33 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
15
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rustavi Rustavi 28 matches
Gagra Gagra 28 matches
Rustavi Statistic Gagra
13 Wins 7
7 Draws 12
8 Losses 9
35 Goals For 33
29 Goals Against 39
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
15 BTTS Yes 18
19 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0.8
0 Total Shots 0.8
0 Corners 0.2
0% Ball Possession 9.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Rustavi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Gagra. Rustavi arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 35 points compared to Gagra in 8 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Rustavi come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gagra having the stronger overall control.

Rustavi Analysis

Rustavi approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 35 points after 20 outings. The return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 23:18, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Gagra Analysis

So far, Gagra have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 23 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 20:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Rustavi won 4 times, Gagra won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:15 from Rustavi's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
H2H summary: Rustavi wins 4, draws 3, Gagra wins 6
Last matches: Rustavi
15.08.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
3
0
W
07.08.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
0
W
22.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
0
3
L
17.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
FC Iberia 1999
2
1
W
13.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
1
0
W
29.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
0
1
L
21.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Gagra
1
1
D
11.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
3
L
05.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
1
D
01.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
FC Iberia 1999
2
1
W
22.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
2
1
W
07.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
3
0
W
03.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
L
11.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
0
0
D
Last matches: Gagra
17.08.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
2
2
D
15.07.26
Fri
Gagra
BKMA
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Gagra
FC Urartu
2
2
D
24.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
18.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
28.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
2
0
W
20.05.26
Ero
Gagra
FC Iberia 1999
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
11.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
06.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
27.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
21.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
2
D
07.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
1
1
D
03.04.26
Ero
Gagra
FC Iberia 1999
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
2
1
W
H2H: Rustavi vs Gagra
16.05.26
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
15.03.26
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
L
01.11.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
2
0
L
10.09.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
1
L
24.05.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
3
1
L
02.04.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
26.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
0
D
20.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
2
W
24.08.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
20.07.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
3
L
20.10.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
2
0
W
11.08.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
2
W
19.05.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
0
W
31.03.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
0
L
30.04.16
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
1
D
Last matches: Rustavi
07.08.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
0
W
13.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
1
0
W
29.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
2
1
W
21.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
0
W
11.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
3
L
01.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
FC Iberia 1999
2
1
W
07.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
3
0
W
15.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
L
07.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
0
W
17.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
06.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Shturmi
1
1
D
29.01.26
Fri
Rustavi
Spaeri
2
2
D
23.01.26
Fri
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
H2H at home: Rustavi
15.03.26
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
L
10.09.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
1
L
02.04.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
24.08.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
20.07.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
3
L
20.10.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
2
0
W
19.05.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
0
W
30.04.16
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
1
D
Last matches: Gagra
08.08.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
2
2
D
18.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
28.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
1
W
20.05.26
Ero
Gagra
FC Iberia 1999
0
1
L
11.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
21.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
0
W
07.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
2
1
W
07.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
1
D
17.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Bunyodkor
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Muras United
4
4
D
09.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Gagra
Shturmi
1
2
L
H2H away: Gagra
15.03.26
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
W
10.09.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
1
W
02.04.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
24.08.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
20.07.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
3
W
20.10.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
2
0
L
19.05.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
0
L
30.04.16
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.28
Draw 3.30
Home 1.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.14
Draw 2.02
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.42
Draw 2.44
Home 2.11
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.33
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.70
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.15
Over 3.0 2.59
Over 3.25 2.92
Over 3.5 3.20
Over 3.75 4.00
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.89
Over 4.5 6.25
Over 5.5 15.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 0.75 7.85
Under 1.0 7.20
Under 1.25 4.24
Under 1.5 3.14
Under 1.75 2.81
Under 2.0 2.43
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.02

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 11 5 5 26:18 8 38
W W L W W
2 21 9 7 5 33:25 8 34
L W W W L
3 20 10 4 6 30:22 8 34
L W L D W
4 22 9 7 6 35:32 3 34
W W D L W
5 21 8 6 7 34:23 11 30
W L D L L
6 20 9 2 9 24:20 4 29
W W W L L
7 21 8 4 9 27:37 -10 28
L W D L W
8
Gagra Away
21 5 9 7 21:27 -6 24
D D D D W
9 21 5 8 8 27:28 -1 23
D L D L D
10 22 1 8 13 15:40 -25 11
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2