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20.10.2026 18:45
Aesseal New York Stadium
Referee: J. Callum
Rotherham
Match Timeline
Newport County
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
Paul Mullin
Rotherham
⚽
12'
Aaron Nemane · Assist: Jayce Fitzgerald
Rotherham
🟨
16'
Jamie Jellis
Rotherham
⚽
28'
Harrison Biggins
Newport County
🟨
42'
Paul Mullin
Rotherham
🟨
42'
Gerard Garner
Newport County
🔄
45'
Alfie Merritt ↔ Matthew Smith
Newport County
⚽
54'
Gerard Garner
Newport County
🔄
60'
Gerard Garner ↔ Kion Etete
Newport County
🔄
60'
Michael Adu-Poku ↔ Yahya Bamba
Newport County
🔄
64'
Jili Buyabu ↔ K. Lolas
Rotherham
🔄
73'
Denzel Hall ↔ Kieran Ngwenya
Rotherham
🔄
85'
kian spence ↔ Tom Bradshaw
Rotherham
🟨
89'
H. Douglas
Rotherham

Rotherham vs Newport County Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rotherham Win 51.8%
Draw 7.7%
Newport County Win 40.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rotherham1.18
Newport County1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rotherham Rotherham
L L L D W
3 GF / 8 GA
Newport County Newport County
D W D W D
4 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
10
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
12
3.64
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rotherham Rotherham 18 matches
Newport County Newport County 19 matches
Rotherham Statistic Newport County
5 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
6 Losses 6
19 Goals For 28
23 Goals Against 26
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 5
3.64 Shots On Goal 3.64
12.09 Total Shots 11.09
3.82 Corners 4.36
51.8% Ball Possession 39%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Newport County's more proactive style and Rotherham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Newport County. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Newport County carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 13 points while Rotherham sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Rotherham Analysis

With 10 points from 10 games and a place of 20, Rotherham still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 12:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Mullin (5 goals), Brandon Ashley Cover (1 goals), O. Ashley (1 goals), with creative support from K. Spence (3 assists), J. Austerfield (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Newport County Analysis

Newport County are currently 12 in the standings with 13 points from 10 matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Gwengwe (4 goals), C. Doidge (2 goals), H. Biggins (1 goals), with creative support from C. Doidge (2 assists), M. Jacob (2 assists), H. Biggins (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Rotherham 4-2-3-1 / Newport County 4-2-3-1

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League