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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
10.10.2026 14:00
New York Stadium
Rotherham
Match Timeline
Gillingham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
17'
Paul Mullin · Assist: kian spence
Rotherham
⚽
34'
Ronan Chapman Hale · Assist: Lamin Sillah
Gillingham
🔄
45'
Ossama Ashley ↔ Jamie Jellis
Rotherham
🟨
47'
James Brophy
Gillingham
🟨
51'
Logan Dobbs
Gillingham
⚽
60'
Lamin Sillah · Assist: James Brophy
Gillingham
🔄
61'
Josh Austerfield ↔ Tom Bradshaw
Rotherham
🟨
66'
Julian Eyestone
Rotherham
⚽
67'
Ronan Chapman Hale
Gillingham
🔄
68'
kian spence ↔ Aaron Nemane
Rotherham
🟨
75'
Dominic Iorfa
Rotherham
🔄
77'
Armani Little ↔ Ethan·Coleman
Gillingham
🔄
78'
Harry Waldock ↔ Bradley Dack
Gillingham
🔄
82'
Ronan Chapman Hale ↔ S. Kendall
Gillingham
🔄
82'
Lamin Sillah ↔ Tom Eaves
Gillingham
🔄
83'
Logan Dobbs ↔ Jack Daley
Gillingham
🔄
84'
Dominic Iorfa ↔ Jayce Fitzgerald
Rotherham
🟨
88'
Sonny Aljofree
Rotherham
⚽
89'
Tom Eaves
Gillingham

Rotherham vs Gillingham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.4%
1.80 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.95 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.4%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Rotherham Win 34.6%
Draw 18.1%
Gillingham Win 47.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rotherham1.02
Gillingham1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rotherham Rotherham
WWDLW
18 GF / 17 GA
Gillingham Gillingham
WLDWL
17 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
9
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
6
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rotherham Rotherham 16 matches
Gillingham Gillingham 13 matches
Rotherham Statistic Gillingham
5 Wins 6
7 Draws 4
4 Losses 3
18 Goals For 17
17 Goals Against 11
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
9 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 5
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.56
12.44 Total Shots 10.33
3.89 Corners 3.56
51.3% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Gillingham's more proactive style and Rotherham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gillingham. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rotherham expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Gillingham in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gillingham having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Rotherham Analysis

Rotherham approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 11:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Mullin (4 goals), Brandon Ashley Cover (1 goals), O. Ashley (1 goals), with creative support from K. Spence (2 assists), J. Austerfield (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gillingham Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Gillingham have collected 13 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 11:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Brophy (3 goals), S. Kendall (2 goals), Ronan Hale (1 goals), with creative support from N. Freeman (3 assists), Ronan Hale (1 assists), A. Smith (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Rotherham won 7 times, Gillingham won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:11 from Rotherham's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Rotherham 3-4-1-2 / Gillingham 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Rotherham wins 7, draws 1, Gillingham wins 3

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League