NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
10.05.2026 12:30
Lerkendal Stadion
Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway
Rosenborg
Match Timeline
Lillestrom
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
8'
Jonas Svensson
Rosenborg
⚽
10'
S. Nordli
Rosenborg
⚽
24'
A. Chiakha · Assist: O. Selnaes
Rosenborg
🟨
30'
Ylldren Ibrahimaj
Lillestrom
🟨
42'
Aslak Witry
Rosenborg
🟨
45+4'
Ole Selnaes
Rosenborg
🔄
46'
O. Selnaes ↔ D. Duris
Rosenborg
🔄
54'
J. Svensson ↔ T. Dahl
Rosenborg
🔄
54'
S. Drammeh ↔ C. Jebara
Lillestrom
🔄
54'
G. Nyheim ↔ H. Woxen
Lillestrom
🔄
67'
A. Chiakha ↔ D. Islamovic
Rosenborg
🔄
67'
E. K. Ceide ↔ N. Sahsah
Rosenborg
🔄
71'
S. Ottesen ↔ F. Elkaer
Lillestrom
🔄
71'
K. Arierhi ↔ L. Alperud
Lillestrom
🔄
79'
S. Nordli ↔ I. Fossum
Rosenborg
🔄
86'
L. Ranger ↔ S. Foss
Lillestrom
🟨
90+2'
Sander Moen Foss
Lillestrom

Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rosenborg Win 31.4%
Draw 3.7%
Lillestrom Win 65%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosenborg1.09
Lillestrom1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosenborg Rosenborg
WWDLW
12 GF / 15 GA
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WLDWL
38 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
2.24
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
5
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
10
3
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosenborg Rosenborg 13 matches
Lillestrom Lillestrom 17 matches
Rosenborg Statistic Lillestrom
5 Wins 8
3 Draws 4
5 Losses 5
12 Goals For 38
15 Goals Against 23
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 2.24
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
5 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 10
1 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 4.71
10.43 Total Shots 13.14
6.86 Corners 4.71
49.3% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lillestrom's more proactive style and Rosenborg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lillestrom. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rosenborg expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Lillestrom in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lillestrom having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Lillestrom carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 16 points while Rosenborg sit 14 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Rosenborg Analysis

With 5 points from 7 games and a place of 14, Rosenborg still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 3:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on I. Fossum (1 goals), Mads Bomholt (1 goals), S. Nordli (1 goals), with creative support from I. Fossum (1 assists), O. Selnaes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 16 points after 7 outings. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Karlsbakk (4 goals), T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), with creative support from Felix Va (3 assists), T. Olsen (1 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Rosenborg won 5 times, Lillestrom won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:17 from Rosenborg's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Rosenborg 4-4-2 / Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Rosenborg 3, Lillestrom 4
H2H summary: Rosenborg wins 5, draws 3, Lillestrom wins 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen