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11.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre
Referee: Facundo Tello
Rosario Central
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
Ángel Di María
Rosario Central
🟨
12'
Gonzalo Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
25'
Ángel Di María
Rosario Central
VAR
39'
Alex Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🟥
40'
Alex Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
45+2'
Leonard Costa
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
45'
Federico Navarro ↔ Giovanni Ismael Cantizano
Rosario Central
🔄
45'
Gonzalo Rios ↔ Fabrizio Sartori Prieto
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
51'
Jaminton Campaz · Assist: Vicente Pizarro
Rosario Central
⚽
57'
Ángel Di María · Assist: Vicente Pizarro
Rosario Central
🔄
59'
Luciano Gomez ↔ Alex Vigo
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
59'
Luis Sequeira ↔ Matías Reali
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
63'
Jose Ignacio Florentin
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
69'
Enzo Copetti · Assist: G.Agustin Sandez
Rosario Central
🔄
71'
Jaminton Campaz ↔ Franco Cervi
Rosario Central
🔄
72'
Enzo Copetti ↔ Marco Ruben
Rosario Central
🔄
72'
Tomas Bottari ↔ Stefano Moreyra
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
72'
Franco Ibarra ↔ Julian Fernandez
Rosario Central
⚽
74'
Marco Ruben · Assist: Ignacio Ovando
Rosario Central
🔄
76'
Ángel Di María ↔ Juan Giménez
Rosario Central
🔄
79'
Matías Fernández ↔ Leonel Bucca
Independ. Rivadavia

Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
60.9%
1.80 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.37 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.5%
1.29 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Rosario Central Win 39.1%
Draw 19.7%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosario Central1.11
Independ. Rivadavia1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosario Central Rosario Central
WWDLW
48 GF / 33 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
67 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.68
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
18
BTTS Yes
26
17
Over 2.5
19
4.74
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosario Central Rosario Central 40 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 40 matches
Rosario Central Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
20 Wins 23
10 Draws 11
10 Losses 6
48 Goals For 67
33 Goals Against 39
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
18 BTTS Yes 26
25 Over 1.5 31
17 Over 2.5 19
4 Over 3.5 10
16 Clean Sheets 12
11 Failed To Score 6
4.74 Shots On Goal 5.03
13.71 Total Shots 14.06
5.32 Corners 4.25
56.7% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independ. Rivadavia. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rosario Central expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independ. Rivadavia in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Rosario Central Analysis

Rosario Central come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 28 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 20:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Á. Di María (4 goals), E. Copetti (3 goals), G. Ávila (2 goals), with creative support from F. Ibarra (3 assists), Á. Di María (2 assists), C. Quintana (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 34 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 29:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Arce (8 goals), J. Florentín (4 goals), F. Sartori (3 goals), with creative support from M. Fernández (4 assists), S. Villa (4 assists), L. Gómez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Rosario Central won 3 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Rosario Central's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Rosario Central wins 3, draws 2, Independ. Rivadavia wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D W W L W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W L W W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W L D D W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
D W W D L
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W D D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D D D W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L W W W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W W L L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L D W L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase