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03.05.2026 14:00
Spotland Stadium
Rochdale
Match Timeline
Scunthorpe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
W. Evans
Rochdale
🟨
19'
B. Horton
Scunthorpe
🟨
34'
T. Adebayo-Rowling
Rochdale
🔄
42'
D. Whitehall ↔ D. Howe
Scunthorpe
🔄
45+1'
D. Moss ↔ C. Pettit
Rochdale
🟨
49'
D. Howe
Scunthorpe
⚽
57'
D. Rodney · Assist: L. Hannant
Rochdale
🔄
66'
P. Jones ↔ A. Beestin
Scunthorpe
🔄
66'
O. Ewing ↔ K. Scales
Scunthorpe
🔄
66'
J. Belehouan ↔ R. Barrows
Scunthorpe
🟨
69'
T. Denton
Scunthorpe
🔄
77'
L. Hannant ↔ J. Pritchard
Rochdale
🔄
77'
D. Rodney ↔ I. Henderson
Rochdale
⚽
81'
D. Howe · Assist: L. Jones
Scunthorpe
🔄
86'
R. East ↔ S. Beckwith
Rochdale
🔄
89'
J. Rowley ↔ A. Boyce
Scunthorpe
🟨
90+1'
K. Scales
Scunthorpe
🟨
90+5'
W. Evans
Scunthorpe

Rochdale vs Scunthorpe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rochdale Win 51.9%
Draw 12.2%
Scunthorpe Win 35.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rochdale1.65
Scunthorpe1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rochdale Rochdale
D W W D L
7 GF / 7 GA
Scunthorpe Scunthorpe
W L D W L
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.78
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
28
BTTS Yes
35
28
Over 2.5
31
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rochdale Rochdale 49 matches
Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 51 matches
Rochdale Statistic Scunthorpe
34 Wins 26
8 Draws 13
7 Losses 12
91 Goals For 91
44 Goals Against 68
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
28 BTTS Yes 35
39 Over 1.5 43
28 Over 2.5 31
13 Over 3.5 19
21 Clean Sheets 10
2 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 2-2, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Scunthorpe having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Scunthorpe. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Rochdale Analysis

Rochdale enter this tie with a season profile built on 106 points from 46 matches, placing them 2 in their league. With 33 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses plus a goal ratio of 88:41, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on E. Dieseruvwe (26 goals), D. Rodney (8 goals), I. Henderson (8 goals), with creative support from T. Adebayo-Rowling (9 assists), D. Rodney (8 assists), E. Dieseruvwe (7 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 18 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Scunthorpe Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Scunthorpe arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 82 points after 46 matches. Their record of 23 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 77:62 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on C. Roberts (19 goals), D. Whitehall (17 goals), D. Howe (12 goals), with creative support from C. Roberts (8 assists), D. Whitehall (6 assists), T. Denton (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Rochdale won 6 times, Scunthorpe won 1 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:18 from Rochdale's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Rochdale 4-2-3-1 / Scunthorpe -
H2H summary: Rochdale wins 6, draws 7, Scunthorpe wins 1

Standings

Conference: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 33 9 4 114:41 73 108
D W W W W
2 46 33 7 6 88:41 47 106
D W W D L
3 46 29 8 9 87:51 36 95
W W W D D
4 46 27 9 10 95:58 37 90
W W W L W
5 46 23 13 10 77:62 15 82
L D W L D
6 46 23 12 11 83:47 36 81
W L W W D
7 46 23 12 11 82:52 30 81
W L W D W
8 46 20 10 16 69:66 3 70
W L D D W
9 46 18 14 14 54:59 -5 68
L W W L D
10 46 16 15 15 69:54 15 63
L W D W D
11 46 17 11 18 63:71 -8 62
W D L D W
12 46 15 14 17 63:67 -4 59
W W D W D
13 46 17 6 23 55:65 -10 57
W W W L L
14 46 14 14 18 71:72 -1 56
W L D D W
15 46 15 11 20 67:74 -7 56
L D D L W
16 46 15 6 25 48:68 -20 51
L L D L W
17 46 13 11 22 57:80 -23 50
W D L W D
18 46 14 8 24 54:90 -36 50
L L W W D
19 46 11 14 21 59:79 -20 47
L L L L D
20 46 13 7 26 69:87 -18 46
L L L L L
21 46 10 12 24 40:75 -35 42
L W L D L
22 46 9 11 26 66:103 -37 38
L L L D W
23 46 8 12 26 38:76 -38 36
L L L D L
24 46 8 10 28 42:72 -30 34
W L L D L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation