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20.10.2026 18:45
Spotland Stadium
Referee: D. Bourne
Rochdale
Match Timeline
Grimsby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Charles Vernam
Grimsby
🟨
20'
Babajide Adeeko
Rochdale
⚽
38'
Dajaune Brown · Assist: Glenn Middleton
Rochdale
🟨
42'
Maldini Kacurri
Grimsby
🔄
46'
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling ↔ Kane Taylor
Rochdale
🟨
49'
Edward Francis
Rochdale
🟨
50'
Jamie Walker
Grimsby
⚽
57'
Kieran Green
Grimsby
🔄
65'
Babajide Adeeko ↔ Sam Beckwith
Rochdale
🟨
67'
Cian Hayes
Rochdale
⚽
72'
Jamie Walker
Grimsby
🔄
75'
Cian Hayes ↔ Luke Hanannt
Rochdale
🔄
76'
Jamie Walker ↔ Cian Doyle
Grimsby
🔄
76'
Justin Amaluzor ↔ Sonny Finch
Grimsby
🔄
81'
Kane Taylor ↔ Ian Henderson
Rochdale
⚽
88'
Ian Henderson
Rochdale
🔄
89'
Iwan Morgan ↔ Finlay Cartwright
Grimsby

Rochdale vs Grimsby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rochdale Win 62.1%
Draw 13.5%
Grimsby Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rochdale1.17
Grimsby1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rochdale Rochdale
L D W W W
8 GF / 5 GA
Grimsby Grimsby
L L L L W
4 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
8
2.91
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rochdale Rochdale 15 matches
Grimsby Grimsby 18 matches
Rochdale Statistic Grimsby
4 Wins 7
4 Draws 7
7 Losses 4
20 Goals For 27
25 Goals Against 17
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
2.91 Shots On Goal 4.45
9.27 Total Shots 14.91
4.64 Corners 6.36
54.4% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Grimsby's more proactive style and Rochdale's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rochdale expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grimsby in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grimsby having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Grimsby. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Grimsby arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Rochdale Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Rochdale have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 11:12 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Brown (3 goals), C. Tasker (1 goals), A. Flint (1 goals), with creative support from G. Middleton (2 assists), D. Brown (1 assists), C. Tasker (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grimsby Analysis

Grimsby approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 13 points from 10 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 13:11 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Green (3 goals), Iwan Morgan (1 goals), G. Turi (1 goals), with creative support from Iwan Morgan (2 assists), K. Green (1 assists), G. Turi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Rochdale won 2 times, Grimsby won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Rochdale's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Rochdale 4-2-3-1 / Grimsby 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Rochdale wins 2, draws 0, Grimsby wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League