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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
24.10.2026 14:00
Spotland Stadium

Rochdale vs Accrington ST Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.1%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rochdale Win 76.1%
Draw 6.7%
Accrington ST Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rochdale1.17
Accrington ST1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rochdale Rochdale
WWDLW
20 GF / 25 GA
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WLDWL
21 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
7
2.91
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rochdale Rochdale 15 matches
Accrington ST Accrington ST 16 matches
Rochdale Statistic Accrington ST
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 7
7 Losses 3
20 Goals For 21
25 Goals Against 15
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
2.91 Shots On Goal 4.73
9.45 Total Shots 14.64
4.64 Corners 5.45
54.4% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Accrington ST. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rochdale expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Accrington ST in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Accrington ST having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Rochdale Analysis

Rochdale are currently 10 in the standings with 14 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 11:12 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Brown (3 goals), C. Tasker (1 goals), A. Flint (1 goals), with creative support from G. Middleton (2 assists), D. Brown (1 assists), C. Tasker (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST sit 15 with 11 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 13:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Caton (3 goals), J. Woods (2 goals), C. Warren (2 goals), with creative support from J. Woods (1 assists), Stefan Mols (1 assists), C. O'Brien (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Rochdale won 8 times, Accrington ST won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Rochdale's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Rochdale 4-2-3-1 / Accrington ST 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Rochdale wins 8, draws 1, Accrington ST wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League