06.09.2026 22:15
Estadio Monumental
Referee: Nicolas Ramirez, Argentina
River Plate
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
29'
Alex Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
30'
G. Montiel
River Plate
🟨
38'
Iván Villalba
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
40'
José Florentín
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
43'
Nicolás Otamendi
River Plate
54'
T. Galvan
River Plate
🔄
57'
G. Rios ↔ L. Sequeira
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
57'
F. Sartori ↔ L. Diaz
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
66'
A. Osella ↔ A. Vigo
Independ. Rivadavia
68'
A. Arce · Assist: J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
70'
Lucas Martínez Quarta
River Plate
🔄
77'
S. Driussi ↔ J. Meza
River Plate
🔄
77'
T. Andrada ↔ L. Beltran
River Plate
80'
T. Galvan · Assist: L. Beltran
River Plate
🔄
81'
M. Acuna ↔ F. Ortega
River Plate
🔄
89'
A. Correa ↔ M. Arambarri
River Plate
🔄
89'
T. Galvan ↔ R. Borre
River Plate
🔄
89'
T. Bottari ↔ V. Ramis
Independ. Rivadavia

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
67.1%
2.05
BTTS No
65.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
1.57
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.4%
1.39
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
10.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
River Plate Win 32.9%
Draw 23.9%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 43.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
River Plate1.13
Independ. Rivadavia1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
River Plate River Plate
WWDLW
40 GF / 29 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
59 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
11
BTTS Yes
22
10
Over 2.5
17
5.19
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

River Plate River Plate 31 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 35 matches
River Plate Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
15 Wins 21
5 Draws 9
11 Losses 5
40 Goals For 59
29 Goals Against 31
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
11 BTTS Yes 22
18 Over 1.5 27
10 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
12 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 6
5.19 Shots On Goal 4.88
16 Total Shots 13.97
5.44 Corners 4.41
64.7% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independ. Rivadavia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with River Plate expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independ. Rivadavia in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. River Plate have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

River Plate Analysis

River Plate approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 29 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 22:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Facundo Colidio (4 goals), Gonzalo Montiel (2 goals), Sebastián Driussi (2 goals), with creative support from Facundo Colidio (2 assists), Juan Fernando Quintero (2 assists), Joaquín Freitas (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 34 points after 16 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 29:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Alex Arce (5 goals), Leonel Bucca (3 goals), José Florentín (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (4 assists), Matías Fernández (3 assists), Leonard Costa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, River Plate won 1 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from River Plate's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
Predicted formations: River Plate 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: River Plate wins 1, draws 2, Independ. Rivadavia wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W W L W D
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
L D D D L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L D W
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L L W D D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
W L W L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase