PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
11.05.2026 19:15
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Referee: J. Goncalves
Rio Ave
Match Timeline
Sporting CP
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
Diogo Bezerra · Assist: T. Monteiro
Rio Ave
🟨
13'
Diogo Bezerra
Rio Ave
🟨
32'
Luis Javier Suárez
Sporting CP
🟨
32'
Ousmane Diomande
Sporting CP
🟨
34'
Francisco Petrasso
Rio Ave
⚽
35'
L. Suarez
Sporting CP
⚽
42'
Gustavo Mancha
Sporting CP
🟨
52'
Francisco Petrasso
Rio Ave
🟥
52'
Francisco Petrasso
Rio Ave
🔄
55'
T. Monteiro ↔ J. Brabec
Rio Ave
🔄
64'
M. Vrousai ↔ J. Tome
Rio Ave
🔄
64'
Luis Guilherme ↔ G. Catamo
Sporting CP
🔄
65'
H. Morita ↔ G. Quenda
Sporting CP
⚽
66'
Trincao · Assist: O. Diomande
Sporting CP
🔄
72'
N. Abbey ↔ O. Richards
Rio Ave
🔄
73'
Diogo Bezerra ↔ A. Ntoi
Rio Ave
🔄
73'
D. Spikic ↔ A. Papakanellos
Rio Ave
🔄
82'
D. Braganca ↔ G. Kochorashvili
Sporting CP
🔄
82'
Pote ↔ E. Felicissimo
Sporting CP
🟨
83'
Ryan Guilherme
Rio Ave
🟨
85'
Ryan Guilherme
Rio Ave
🟥
85'
Ryan Guilherme
Rio Ave
🔄
90+1'
L. Suarez ↔ R. Nel
Sporting CP
⚽
90'
G. Quenda · Assist: M. Araujo
Sporting CP

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 23.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 26%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
23.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
26%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rio Ave Win 19.7%
Draw 11.3%
Sporting CP Win 69.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rio Ave0.96
Sporting CP2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rio Ave Rio Ave
WWDLW
33 GF / 52 GA
Sporting CP Sporting CP
WLDWL
104 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
2.36
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
16
BTTS Yes
25
19
Over 2.5
31
3.91
Shots on Goal
6.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rio Ave Rio Ave 32 matches
Sporting CP Sporting CP 44 matches
Rio Ave Statistic Sporting CP
8 Wins 29
11 Draws 9
13 Losses 6
33 Goals For 104
52 Goals Against 38
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 2.36
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
16 BTTS Yes 25
26 Over 1.5 39
19 Over 2.5 31
9 Over 3.5 15
6 Clean Sheets 17
13 Failed To Score 3
3.91 Shots On Goal 6.41
10.53 Total Shots 16.39
4.38 Corners 6.27
47% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sporting CP's more proactive style and Rio Ave's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting CP. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Sporting CP carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 76 points while Rio Ave sit 12 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Rio Ave Analysis

Rio Ave sit 12 with 35 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 33:52 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Clayton (10 goals), Andre Luiz (7 goals), J. Blesa (6 goals), with creative support from Andre Luiz (5 assists), Clayton (4 assists), D. Spikic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting CP Analysis

Placed 3 with 76 points from 32 outings, Sporting CP continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 23 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 82:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Suarez (26 goals), P. Goncalves (13 goals), D. Braganca (6 goals), with creative support from Trincao (11 assists), P. Goncalves (7 assists), L. Suarez (6 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 11 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rio Ave won 0 times, Sporting CP won 12 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:37 from Rio Ave's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 / Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rio Ave wins 0, draws 3, Sporting CP wins 12

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2