LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
LNK Sporta Parks
Referee: J. Keziks
Rīgas FS
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
D. Zelenkovs · Assist: R. Ndjiki
Rīgas FS
🟨
30'
D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
33'
E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
46'
M. Talla ↔ A. Kouadio
Rīgas FS
54'
Papa
Rīgas FS
62'
Z. Lipuscek · Assist: D. Zelenkovs
Rīgas FS
🔄
66'
Z. Lipuscek ↔ N. Sliede
Rīgas FS
🔄
66'
I. Diomande ↔ M. Kigurs
Rīgas FS
🔄
69'
D. Ayebadiepreye ↔ D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
69'
C. Taty ↔ R. Aizups
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
69'
A. Traore ↔ M. Kopilovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
76'
R. Ndjiki ↔ L. Odisharia
Rīgas FS
🔄
76'
G. Mankenda ↔ J. Ikaunieks
Rīgas FS
🔄
78'
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand ↔ K. Bujanovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
78'
R. Skrebels ↔ R. Baikovs
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
79'
A. Kouadio
Rīgas FS
84'
R. Matrevics
BFC Daugavpils

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.2%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rīgas FS Win 79.2%
Draw 3.6%
BFC Daugavpils Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rīgas FS2.02
BFC Daugavpils0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
WWDLW
77 GF / 28 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
28 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
2.41
Average Goals Scored
1
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
15
BTTS Yes
14
19
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 32 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 28 matches
Rīgas FS Statistic BFC Daugavpils
25 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
3 Losses 14
77 Goals For 28
28 Goals Against 40
2.41 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
15 BTTS Yes 14
25 Over 1.5 16
19 Over 2.5 11
14 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Rīgas FS's more proactive style and BFC Daugavpils's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Rīgas FS come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Rīgas FS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 49 points compared to BFC Daugavpils in 5 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 49 points after 19 outings. They have recorded 16 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 48:14 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on D. Lemajic (10 goals), S. Panic (7 goals), I. Diomande (6 goals), with creative support from R. Savalnieks (8 assists), M. Saidy (4 assists), L. Odisharia (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 5 with 23 points from 19 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 21:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Ndjiki (8 goals), A. Garzha (5 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (5 assists), J. Yakubu (4 assists), G. Mihalcovs (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rīgas FS won 14 times, BFC Daugavpils won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 47:10 from Rīgas FS's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1 / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rīgas FS wins 14, draws 1, BFC Daugavpils wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2 27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L