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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
18.10.2026 13:00
Skonto
Riga
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
Raivis Kirss
Super Nova
🔄
46'
Samuel Pedro ↔ Meïssa Diop
Riga
🔄
46'
Abner ↔ Abdulrahman Taiwo
Riga
🟨
48'
Raki Aouani
Riga
🟨
49'
Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🟨
53'
Raivis Kirss
Super Nova
🟨
55'
Valerijs Lizunovs
Super Nova
🔄
59'
Maksims Tonisevs ↔ Raivis Jurkovskis
Riga
🔄
59'
Reginaldo Ramires ↔ Muhammed Badamosi
Riga
🔄
59'
Samate Amadou ↔ Ibrahima Diop
Super Nova
🔄
59'
Raivis Kirss ↔ Agris Glaudans
Super Nova
🟨
63'
Ivans Patrikejevs
Super Nova
⚽
68'
Iago Siqueira Augusto · Assist: Coli Saco
Riga
🟨
71'
Ibrahima Diop
Super Nova
⚽
75'
Muhammed Badamosi · Assist: Raki Aouani
Riga
🔄
81'
Kristaps Romanovs ↔ Milans Tihonovics
Super Nova
🔄
82'
Eduards Emsis ↔ Ndiaye Pathé
Super Nova
🟨
87'
Jegors Cirulis
Super Nova
🟨
87'
Mārcis Ošs
Super Nova
🔄
88'
Ivans Patrikejevs ↔ Kristers Skadmanis
Super Nova
🔄
89'
Coli Saco ↔ Baba Musah
Riga

Riga vs Super Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.10
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 2.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
1.10 ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
2.90 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.89 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 66.5%
Draw 3.6%
Super Nova Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.06
Super Nova1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
D W W W W
7 GF / 2 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
L W L L W
3 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
2.45
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
31
BTTS Yes
20
35
Over 2.5
18
1.83
Shots on Goal
0.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 49 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 36 matches
Riga Statistic Super Nova
33 Wins 12
11 Draws 6
5 Losses 18
120 Goals For 37
52 Goals Against 53
2.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
31 BTTS Yes 20
43 Over 1.5 26
35 Over 2.5 18
24 Over 3.5 6
17 Clean Sheets 8
3 Failed To Score 10
1.83 Shots On Goal 0.22
4.05 Total Shots 1.34
1.71 Corners 0.56
17.1% Ball Possession 7.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 76 points compared to Super Nova in 6 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Super Nova. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 76 points from 32 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 23 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a 88:30 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Super Nova Analysis

So far, Super Nova have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 38 points from 31 matches. The record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 31:41 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 13 times, Super Nova won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 48:9 from Riga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Riga 4-2-3-1 / Super Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Riga wins 13, draws 1, Super Nova wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 26 5 2 81:24 57 83
W W W D W
2
Riga Home
33 24 7 2 90:31 59 79
W W W W D
3 33 19 7 7 53:34 19 64
L W D W D
4 33 13 7 13 46:46 0 46
W L D D D
5 33 12 9 12 39:37 2 45
W W D L D
6 33 11 5 17 32:47 -15 38
L L W L L
7 33 8 8 17 34:56 -22 32
L L L D L
8 33 6 11 16 25:56 -31 29
W L D D L
9 33 5 9 19 44:65 -21 24
L L D L W
10 33 4 6 23 33:81 -48 18
L L W L D