LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Skonto stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.14
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.14
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.28
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 88%
Draw 6%
Grobiņa Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.28
Grobiņa1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
93 GF / 38 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
31 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
2.74
Average Goals Scored
1
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
22
BTTS Yes
16
28
Over 2.5
10
2.33
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 34 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 31 matches
Riga Statistic Grobiņa
25 Wins 6
5 Draws 12
4 Losses 13
93 Goals For 31
38 Goals Against 49
2.74 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
22 BTTS Yes 16
32 Over 1.5 23
28 Over 2.5 10
19 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 12
2.33 Shots On Goal 0
5.33 Total Shots 0
0.67 Corners 0
17.7% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and Grobiņa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Grobiņa. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 58 points compared to Grobiņa in 8 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 58 points from 23 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 18 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, with a 68:20 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa sit 8 with 20 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 15:35, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 9 times, Grobiņa won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:2 from Riga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Riga 3-5-2 / Grobiņa -
H2H summary: Riga wins 9, draws 1, Grobiņa wins 0
Last matches: Riga
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
22.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
27.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
2
2
D
20.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
05.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
1
W
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
16.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
09.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
L
H2H: Riga vs Grobiņa
29.05.26
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
W
02.11.25
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
1
1
D
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
14.06.25
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
W
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
W
22.06.24
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
6
W
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
10.03.24
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
1
W
Last matches: Riga
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
2
1
W
H2H at home: Riga
29.05.26
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
W
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
20.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
29.05.26
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
L
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
L
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 13.00
Draw 8.50
Home 1.14
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 10.00
Draw 3.25
Home 1.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 9.00
Draw 4.00
Home 1.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.07
Over 2.5 1.28
Over 3.5 1.67
Over 4.5 2.50
Over 5.5 4.00
Over 6.5 7.00
Over 7.5 10.00
Over 8.5 15.00
Over 9.5 21.00
Under 0.5 29.00
Under 1.5 7.50
Under 2.5 3.50
Under 3.5 2.10
Under 4.5 1.50
Under 5.5 1.22
Under 6.5 1.08
Under 7.5 1.03
Under 8.5 1.01
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 16.00
Draw 7.00
Home 1.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 12.50
Draw 2.85
Home 1.47
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 11.30
Draw 4.15
Home 1.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.06
Over 1.75 1.07
Over 2.0 1.09
Over 2.25 1.19
Over 2.5 1.29
Over 2.75 1.35
Over 3.0 1.42
Over 3.25 1.61
Over 3.5 1.77
Over 3.75 1.92
Over 4.0 2.14
Over 4.25 2.35
Over 4.5 2.56
Over 4.75 2.97
Over 5.0 3.58
Over 5.25 3.92
Over 5.5 4.20
Over 6.0 6.55
Over 6.5 7.00
Over 7.5 10.00
Over 8.5 15.00
Over 9.5 21.00
Under 0.5 29.00
Under 1.5 6.05
Under 1.75 5.69
Under 2.0 5.30
Under 2.25 3.76
Under 2.5 3.04
Under 2.75 2.74
Under 3.0 2.49
Under 3.25 2.16
Under 3.5 1.92
Under 3.75 1.77
Under 4.0 1.57
Under 4.25 1.47
Under 4.5 1.40
Under 4.75 1.30
Under 5.0 1.21
Under 5.25 1.18
Under 5.5 1.16
Under 6.0 1.05
Under 6.5 1.08
Under 7.5 1.03
Under 8.5 1.01
Under 9.5 1.00

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2
Riga Home
23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 23 9 4 10 30:34 -4 31
W L W L L
5 24 8 6 10 29:30 -1 30
L W W L D
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 24 6 7 11 24:41 -17 25
L L L W W
8 24 4 9 11 17:37 -20 21
D L W L D
9 24 3 8 13 38:48 -10 17
L L L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W