LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Skonto stadions
Referee: S. Vasjkovs
Riga
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
R. Aouani · Assist: S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🔄
46'
Iago Siqueira ↔ O. Galo
Riga
48'
Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
57'
M. Diop ↔ Caio Ferreira
Riga
🔄
57'
R. Aouani ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
62'
E. Smaukstelis ↔ G. Kacanovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
62'
A. Deklavs ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
🔄
68'
A. Cernomordijs ↔ M. Tonisevs
Riga
🔄
68'
A. Salazar ↔ Paulo Eduardo
Riga
🟨
74'
A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
90'
Juan Christian · Assist: Reginaldo Ramires
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 71.5%
Draw 3.5%
FS Jelgava Win 25%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.29
FS Jelgava1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
76 GF / 29 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
29 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
2.71
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
18
BTTS Yes
12
23
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 28 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 26 matches
Riga Statistic FS Jelgava
20 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
3 Losses 12
76 Goals For 29
29 Goals Against 43
2.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
18 BTTS Yes 12
26 Over 1.5 19
23 Over 2.5 10
15 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and FS Jelgava's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FS Jelgava. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 49 points compared to FS Jelgava in 6 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 49 points from 20 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 15 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 60:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FS Jelgava Analysis

So far, FS Jelgava have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 22 points from 20 matches. The record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 22:35 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 12 times, FS Jelgava won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 48:15 from Riga's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Riga 4-2-3-1 / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Riga wins 12, draws 2, FS Jelgava wins 1

Lineups

Riga
Formation
FS Jelgava
F. Orols
F. Orols
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Cernomordijs
A. Cernomordijs
K. Wassom
K. Wassom
A. Salazar
A. Salazar
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
M. Diop
M. Diop
Iago Siqueira
Iago Siqueira
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯
S. Oulad M'Hand
R. Aouani
R. Aouani
Reginaldo Ramires
🎯
Reginaldo Ramires
A. Dvorak
A. Dvorak
A. Petersons
A. Petersons
J. Novikovs
J. Novikovs
K. Alekseiciks
K. Alekseiciks
A. Kangars
A. Kangars
M. Pudil
M. Pudil
E. Smaukstelis
E. Smaukstelis
G. Zaleiko
G. Zaleiko
M. Hasek
M. Hasek
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
A. Deklavs
A. Deklavs
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
13
R. Jurkovskis
34
A. Cernomordijs
↓ 68'
5
K. Wassom
17
A. Salazar
↓ 68'
40
A. Ankrah
22
M. Diop
↓ 57'
8
Iago Siqueira
↓ 46'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯 11'
7
R. Aouani
⚽ 11' ↓ 57'
10
Reginaldo Ramires
⚽ 48' 🎯 90'
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
23
M. Tonisevs
↑ 68'
19
M. Badamosi
21
B. Musah
99
Caio Ferreira
↑ 57'
4
O. Galo
↑ 46'
33
Paulo Eduardo
↑ 68'
70
Juan Christian
⚽ 90' ↑ 57'
FS Jelgava 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Dvorak
19
A. Petersons
🟨 74'
13
J. Novikovs
27
K. Alekseiciks
4
A. Kangars
22
M. Pudil
18
E. Smaukstelis
↓ 62'
29
G. Zaleiko
11
M. Hasek
8
R. Melkis
28
A. Deklavs
↓ 62'
Substitutes
30
S. Belanik
16
T. Leitis
21
G. Kacanovs
↑ 62'
23
A. Dreimanis
↑ 62'
5
I. Smirnovs
10
D. Holoubek
17
T. Rataj
Last matches: Riga
06.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
4
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
22.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
Last matches: FS Jelgava
01.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
26.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
H2H: Riga vs FS Jelgava
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
04.04.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
W
21.09.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
3
W
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
15.03.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
2
W
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
5
W
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
L
25.06.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
3
W
04.05.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
3
W
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
Last matches: Riga
06.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
4
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
2
1
W
H2H at home: Riga
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
W
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
L
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
01.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
L
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
W
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2
Riga Home
24 19 4 1 72:20 52 61
W W W W D
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 25 9 6 10 31:31 0 33
W L W W L
5 24 9 4 11 31:36 -5 31
L W L W L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 25 6 7 12 25:43 -18 25
L L L L W
8 25 4 9 12 17:41 -24 21
L D L W L
9 25 4 8 13 40:49 -9 20
W L L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W