LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Skonto stadions
Referee: I. Purins
Riga
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
T. Rataj · Assist: G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
14'
L. Prior
FS Jelgava
🟨
19'
A. Cernomordijs
Riga
🔄
36'
Juan Christian ↔ M. Badamosi
Riga
🟨
40'
M. Tonisevs
Riga
🟨
41'
G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
M. Tonisevs ↔ Caio Ferreira
Riga
🔄
46'
M. Diop ↔ Paulo Eduardo
Riga
🔄
58'
R. Becers ↔ A. Butovskis
FS Jelgava
🔄
58'
A. Janovskis ↔ R. Melkis
FS Jelgava
67'
Caio Ferreira · Assist: A. Cernomordijs
Riga
🟨
77'
A. Butovskis
FS Jelgava
🔄
79'
A. Ankrah ↔ B. Pena
Riga
🔄
79'
D. Holoubek ↔ M. Hasek
FS Jelgava
🔄
84'
↔ A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
87'
O. Galo · Assist: A. Cernomordijs
Riga
🟨
88'
S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🟨
90+5'
M. Badamosi
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 82%
Draw 0%
FS Jelgava Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.41
FS Jelgava0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
54 GF / 24 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
13 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
2.84
Average Goals Scored
0.76
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
14
BTTS Yes
6
17
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 19 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 17 matches
Riga Statistic FS Jelgava
13 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 10
54 Goals For 13
24 Goals Against 30
2.84 Avg Goals Scored 0.76
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
14 BTTS Yes 6
18 Over 1.5 10
17 Over 2.5 6
11 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and FS Jelgava's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 26 points compared to FS Jelgava in 7 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FS Jelgava. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Riga Analysis

Riga come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 26 points after 11 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 36:13 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on M. Badamosi (7 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), J. Ikaunieks (5 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), R. Savalnieks (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava are currently 7 in the standings with 12 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 8:22 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Hasek (4 goals), A. Kangars (2 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from J. Novikovs (2 assists), A. Dvorak (1 assists), D. Holoubek (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 12 times, FS Jelgava won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 48:15 from Riga's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Riga 4-3-2-1 / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Riga wins 12, draws 2, FS Jelgava wins 1

Lineups

Riga
Formation
FS Jelgava
K. Zviedris
K. Zviedris
M. Tonisevs
M. Tonisevs
A. Cernomordijs
🎯
A. Cernomordijs
B. Musah
B. Musah
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
M. Diop
M. Diop
O. Galo
O. Galo
Juan Christian
Juan Christian
Reginaldo Ramires
Reginaldo Ramires
S. Oulad M'Hand
S. Oulad M'Hand
A. Dvorak
A. Dvorak
A. Janovskis
A. Janovskis
J. Novikovs
J. Novikovs
A. Kangars
A. Kangars
M. Semesko
M. Semesko
L. Prior
L. Prior
R. Becers
R. Becers
G. Zaleiko
🎯
G. Zaleiko
D. Holoubek
D. Holoubek
F. Hasek
F. Hasek
T. Rataj
T. Rataj
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
K. Zviedris
23
M. Tonisevs
↓ 46' 🟨 40'
34
A. Cernomordijs
🎯 67' 🎯 87' 🟨 19'
21
B. Musah
13
R. Jurkovskis
40
A. Ankrah
↓ 79'
22
M. Diop
↓ 46'
4
O. Galo
⚽ 87'
70
Juan Christian
↓ 36'
10
Reginaldo Ramires
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
🟨 88'
Substitutes
91
F. Orols
19
M. Badamosi
↑ 36' 🟨 90+5'
29
E. Maurs-Boks
99
Caio Ferreira
⚽ 67' ↑ 46'
5
K. Wassom
33
Paulo Eduardo
↑ 46'
11
B. Pena
↑ 79'
3
Abner
28
A. Mandeke
FS Jelgava 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Dvorak
7
A. Janovskis
↓ 58'
13
J. Novikovs
4
A. Kangars
3
M. Semesko
25
L. Prior
⚽ 14'
9
R. Becers
↓ 58'
29
G. Zaleiko
🎯 11' 🟨 41'
10
D. Holoubek
↓ 79'
24
F. Hasek
17
T. Rataj
⚽ 11'
Substitutes
30
S. Belanik
11
M. Hasek
↑ 79'
26
A. Butovskis
↑ 58' 🟨 77'
22
M. Pudil
21
G. Kacanovs
19
A. Petersons
↑ 84'
8
R. Melkis
↑ 58'
20
G. Patika
18
E. Smaukstelis
Last matches: Riga
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
Last matches: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
H2H: Riga vs FS Jelgava
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
04.04.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
W
21.09.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
3
W
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
15.03.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
2
W
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
5
W
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
L
25.06.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
3
W
04.05.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Riga
1
3
W
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
Last matches: Riga
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
2
1
W
H2H at home: Riga
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
W
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
L
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
16.05.26
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
01.07.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
10.05.25
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
19.07.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
6
1
L
08.04.24
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
01.09.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
5
W
12.03.23
H2H
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
1
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2
Riga Home
22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga