LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Skonto stadions
Referee: K. Ratnieks
Riga
Match Timeline
FK Liepaja
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
A. Salazar · Assist: S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
27'
M. Badamosi
Riga
34'
S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🔄
46'
A. Korobenko ↔ V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🔄
57'
D. Gueye ↔ C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
🔄
57'
I. Patrikejevs ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🔄
59'
A. Ankrah ↔ K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
59'
M. Badamosi ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
59'
Caio Ferreira ↔ M. Diop
Riga
🔄
67'
I. Pulis ↔ A. Traore
FK Liepaja
🔄
70'
S. Oulad M'Hand ↔ Iago Siqueira
Riga
77'
O. Galo · Assist: K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
78'
R. Aouani ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
78'
E. Rodolphe ↔ L. Lakutis
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 79.4%
Draw 4.4%
FK Liepaja Win 16.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.3
FK Liepaja1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
70 GF / 29 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
40 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
2.8
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
18
BTTS Yes
17
22
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 25 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 26 matches
Riga Statistic FK Liepaja
18 Wins 11
4 Draws 5
3 Losses 10
70 Goals For 40
29 Goals Against 40
2.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
18 BTTS Yes 17
24 Over 1.5 21
22 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and FK Liepaja's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FK Liepaja. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 42 points compared to FK Liepaja in 4 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 42 points after 17 outings. The return of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 54:18, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (12 goals), D. Lemajic (8 goals), S. Panic (7 goals), with creative support from R. Savalnieks (7 assists), Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FK Liepaja Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 25 points from 17 games, FK Liepaja bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 23:24, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Gueye (5 goals), K. Leidsman (5 goals), Fellipe Vieira (4 goals), with creative support from Fellipe Vieira (2 assists), A. Korobenko (2 assists), K. Leidsman (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 13 times, FK Liepaja won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 40:10 from Riga's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Riga 4-2-3-1 / FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Riga wins 13, draws 1, FK Liepaja wins 1

Lineups

Riga
Formation
FK Liepaja
F. Orols
F. Orols
M. Tonisevs
M. Tonisevs
A. Cernomordijs
A. Cernomordijs
B. Musah
B. Musah
A. Salazar
A. Salazar
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
Caio Ferreira
Caio Ferreira
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯
S. Oulad M'Hand
O. Galo
O. Galo
R. Aouani
R. Aouani
M. Badamosi
M. Badamosi
D. Oss
D. Oss
A. Korobenko
A. Korobenko
B. Straalman
B. Straalman
I. Korotkovs
I. Korotkovs
A. Silva
A. Silva
E. Rodolphe
E. Rodolphe
I. Mushindi
I. Mushindi
D. Gueye
D. Gueye
I. Patrikejevs
I. Patrikejevs
A. Haidara
A. Haidara
I. Pulis
I. Pulis
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
23
M. Tonisevs
34
A. Cernomordijs
21
B. Musah
17
A. Salazar
⚽ 8'
40
A. Ankrah
↓ 59'
99
Caio Ferreira
↓ 59'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
⚽ 34' 🎯 8' ↓ 70'
4
O. Galo
⚽ 77'
7
R. Aouani
↓ 78'
19
M. Badamosi
⚽ 27' ↓ 59'
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
13
R. Jurkovskis
5
K. Wassom
🎯 77' ↑ 59'
10
Reginaldo Ramires
↑ 59'
33
Paulo Eduardo
70
Juan Christian
↑ 78'
22
M. Diop
↑ 59'
8
Iago Siqueira
↑ 70'
FK Liepaja 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
24
D. Oss
28
A. Korobenko
↓ 46'
2
B. Straalman
33
I. Korotkovs
5
A. Silva
6
E. Rodolphe
↓ 78'
22
I. Mushindi
14
D. Gueye
↓ 57'
11
I. Patrikejevs
↓ 57'
23
A. Haidara
9
I. Pulis
↓ 67'
Substitutes
12
D. Petkovic
35
V. Sorokins
↑ 46'
31
C. Amatkarijo
↑ 57'
3
K. Iljins
7
A. Ogunniyi
↑ 57'
40
R. Untulis
8
A. Traore
↑ 67'
29
L. Lakutis
↑ 78'
Last matches: Riga
09.08.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
06.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
4
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
22.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
09.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
H2H: Riga vs FK Liepaja
21.06.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
03.05.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
07.03.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
1
L
03.10.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
0
W
18.09.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
W
19.07.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
3
W
19.05.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
03.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
5
W
29.09.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
07.07.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
3
W
14.05.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Riga
1
1
D
04.04.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
25.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
20.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
04.07.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
Last matches: Riga
09.08.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
06.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
4
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
H2H at home: Riga
21.06.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
03.05.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
03.10.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
0
W
19.05.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
29.09.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
04.04.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
25.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
20.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
04.07.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
09.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
03.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
1
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
AIK Stockholm
3
1
W
H2H away: FK Liepaja
21.06.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
L
03.05.26
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
L
03.10.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
0
L
19.05.25
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
0
L
29.09.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
L
04.04.24
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
L
25.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
L
20.09.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
2
1
L
04.07.23
H2H
Riga
FK Liepaja
3
1
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Riga Home
25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
2 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 25 4 9 12 17:41 -24 21
L D L W L
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L