AUSTRIA › BUNDESLIGA
17.05.2026 12:30
Red Bull Arena
Referee: S. Ebner
Red Bull Salzburg
Match Timeline
TSV Hartberg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
M. Hoffmann · Assist: F. Wilfinger
TSV Hartberg
🟨
36'
Yorbe Vertessen
Red Bull Salzburg
⚽
42'
F. Wilfinger
TSV Hartberg
🔄
46'
K. Onisiwo ↔ K. Konate
Red Bull Salzburg
🔄
46'
Y. Vertessen ↔ E. Baidoo
Red Bull Salzburg
🔄
61'
D. Redzic ↔ E. Aguilar
Red Bull Salzburg
🔄
70'
F. Kratzig ↔ A. Terzic
Red Bull Salzburg
🔄
73'
P. Komposch ↔ K. Schopp
TSV Hartberg
🔄
73'
L. Pazourek ↔ D. Kovacevic
TSV Hartberg
🔄
73'
M. Hoffmann ↔ M. Fillafer
TSV Hartberg
🔄
76'
H. Coulibaly ↔ J. Golles
TSV Hartberg
🟨
78'
Lukas Spendlhofer
TSV Hartberg
⚽
83'
K. Alajbegovic · Assist: S. Lainer
Red Bull Salzburg
🔄
87'
L. Fridrikas ↔ E. Ojukwu
TSV Hartberg
⚽
90'
D. Kovacevic · Assist: E. Ojukwu
TSV Hartberg

Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Red Bull Salzburg Win 53.3%
Draw 14.6%
TSV Hartberg Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Red Bull Salzburg1.53
TSV Hartberg1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg
WWDLW
83 GF / 62 GA
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg
WLDWL
46 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
30
BTTS Yes
18
28
Over 2.5
16
5.35
Shots on Goal
3.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 48 matches
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 34 matches
Red Bull Salzburg Statistic TSV Hartberg
20 Wins 11
10 Draws 13
18 Losses 10
83 Goals For 46
62 Goals Against 42
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
30 BTTS Yes 18
39 Over 1.5 22
28 Over 2.5 16
20 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 10
5.35 Shots On Goal 3.32
15.19 Total Shots 9.16
4.63 Corners 3.1
55.4% Ball Possession 39.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Red Bull Salzburg expected to line up in 4-3-3 and TSV Hartberg in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward TSV Hartberg having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors TSV Hartberg. TSV Hartberg arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Red Bull Salzburg Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 37 points after 22 matches. The record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 42:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Ratkov (9 goals), K. Alajbegovic (8 goals), Y. Vertessen (8 goals), with creative support from Frans Krätzig (6 assists), M. Kjaergaard (5 assists), S. Kitano (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

TSV Hartberg Analysis

TSV Hartberg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 33 points from 22 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 29:24, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through E. Havel (13 goals), L. Fridrikas (4 goals), M. Hoffmann (3 goals), with creative support from Tobias Kainz (5 assists), Maximilian Hennig (4 assists), E. Havel (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Red Bull Salzburg won 11 times, TSV Hartberg won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:13 from Red Bull Salzburg's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Red Bull Salzburg 4-3-3 / TSV Hartberg 5-4-1
H2H summary: Red Bull Salzburg wins 11, draws 3, TSV Hartberg wins 1

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9 22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)