14.09.2026 00:00
Estadio IV Centenario
Referee: D. Rodriguez
Real Tomayapo
Match Timeline
Bolívar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
J. Velasquez · Assist: J. Sagredo
Bolívar
🟨
35'
Jhon Velásquez
Bolívar
🟨
60'
Carlos Melgar
Bolívar
60'
J. Guerra · Assist: Ruan Costa
Real Tomayapo
🟨
66'
Lisandro Montenegro
Real Tomayapo
🔄
71'
L. S. Montenegro ↔ M. G. Barbery Gil
Real Tomayapo
🔄
72'
B. Arce ↔ D. Batallini
Bolívar
🔄
72'
S. Echeverria ↔ Robson Matheus
Bolívar
🔄
72'
D. Romero ↔ M. Cauteruccio
Bolívar
🟨
74'
Mario Barbery
Real Tomayapo
🔄
86'
R. Eguez ↔ R. Cuellar Orti
Real Tomayapo
🔄
86'
Y. Alvarez ↔ J. Ribera
Real Tomayapo
🔄
86'
L. Justiniano ↔ B. Miranda
Bolívar
🔄
86'
C. A. Melgar ↔ E. Vaca Moreno
Bolívar
🟨
90+1'
Dairon Asprilla
Bolívar
90'
D. Asprilla
Bolívar

Real Tomayapo vs Bolívar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.49
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.7%
1.49
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.39
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
1.58
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Real Tomayapo Win 23%
Draw 14.3%
Bolívar Win 62.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Tomayapo0.93
Bolívar2.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Tomayapo Real Tomayapo
WWDLW
16 GF / 43 GA
Bolívar Bolívar
WLDWL
55 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
2.2
2.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
11
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
1.72
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Tomayapo Real Tomayapo 20 matches
Bolívar Bolívar 25 matches
Real Tomayapo Statistic Bolívar
4 Wins 13
4 Draws 6
12 Losses 6
16 Goals For 55
43 Goals Against 28
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 2.2
2.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
11 BTTS Yes 17
15 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 3
1.72 Shots On Goal 4.92
4.61 Total Shots 11.92
1.56 Corners 3.58
19.7% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bolívar's more proactive style and Real Tomayapo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bolívar. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Real Tomayapo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bolívar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bolívar having the stronger overall control. Bolívar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 36 points while Real Tomayapo sit 14 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Bolívar look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Real Tomayapo Analysis

Real Tomayapo sit 14 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 13:32, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Ramiro Eguez (2 goals), L. Corulo (1 goals), with creative support from Denilzon Ramallo (1 assists), Agustín Verdugo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bolívar Analysis

Bolívar approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 36 points after 17 outings. The return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 44:19, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Martín Cauteruccio (4 goals), Dorny Romero (3 goals), Leonel Justiniano (2 goals), with creative support from Carlos Melgar (4 assists), Patricio Rodríguez (2 assists), Martín Cauteruccio (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Tomayapo won 2 times, Bolívar won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:44 from Real Tomayapo's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Real Tomayapo 4-4-2 / Bolívar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Real Tomayapo wins 2, draws 3, Bolívar wins 10

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 6 1 47:13 34 45
W W W D D
2 20 14 3 3 54:22 32 45
W W W W W
3 20 12 6 2 39:22 17 42
W W W W W
4 20 8 8 4 27:14 13 32
W W D L D
5 20 9 3 8 36:27 9 30
W L L D W
6 20 7 9 4 31:27 4 30
L W W D D
7 20 8 5 7 32:39 -7 29
W L D L D
8 20 6 9 5 30:22 8 27
D W L D D
9 20 8 3 9 30:28 2 27
L W W L W
10 20 7 4 9 27:35 -8 25
L L L W L
11 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L L W D L
12 20 6 2 12 31:45 -14 20
L L W L D
13 20 6 2 12 21:40 -19 20
W L L L L
14 20 5 3 12 26:39 -13 18
D W L W L
15 20 4 4 12 15:39 -24 16
L L L W D
16 20 2 8 10 21:37 -16 14
L L L D D