COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
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Estadio Municipal de Mosquera

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
68.5%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Real Soacha Win 31.5%
Draw 19%
Real Cartagena Win 49.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Soacha0.96
Real Cartagena1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Soacha Real Soacha
WWDLW
14 GF / 20 GA
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena
WLDWL
39 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
8
BTTS Yes
15
5
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Soacha Real Soacha 16 matches
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena 24 matches
Real Soacha Statistic Real Cartagena
2 Wins 12
7 Draws 7
7 Losses 5
14 Goals For 39
20 Goals Against 26
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
8 BTTS Yes 15
11 Over 1.5 18
5 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Real Cartagena's more proactive style and Real Soacha's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Real Cartagena arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Real Cartagena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Cartagena having the stronger overall control. Real Cartagena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 27 points while Real Soacha sit 13 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Real Soacha Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Real Soacha have collected 13 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 14:19 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Cartagena Analysis

Real Cartagena sit 5 with 27 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats with a 26:19 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Real Soacha won 2 times, Real Cartagena won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:7 from Real Soacha's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.88 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81%)
H2H summary: Real Soacha wins 2, draws 3, Real Cartagena wins 3
Last matches: Real Soacha
27.07.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Envigado
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Ind. Yumbo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Tigres FC
0
2
L
01.04.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Bogota FC
2
2
D
25.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Depor FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Barranquilla
2
2
D
17.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Quindio
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Union Magdalena
1
1
D
05.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Internacional Palmira
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Patriotas
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Orsomarso
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Real Santander
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Leones FC
2
0
W
05.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Popayan
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
0
1
L
26.01.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Envigado
0
2
L
02.12.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Cucuta
1
2
L
28.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Cucuta
1
0
W
23.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Patriotas
3
0
W
20.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Popayan
1
0
W
Last matches: Real Cartagena
26.07.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Real Santander
5
1
W
29.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Envigado
1
1
D
26.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Envigado
2
3
L
22.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Barranquilla
2
1
W
18.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Bogota FC
2
1
W
12.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
0
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Bogota FC
2
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Barranquilla
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Barranquilla
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Patriotas
0
1
L
01.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Quindio
2
1
W
27.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Popayan
1
1
D
23.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Envigado
1
1
D
11.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Internacional Palmira
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Orsomarso
4
0
W
03.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Tigres FC
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Leones FC
2
3
L
13.02.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Depor FC
4
1
W
H2H: Real Soacha vs Real Cartagena
31.01.26
H2H
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
1
0
L
17.11.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
12.11.25
H2H
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
0
0
D
05.08.25
H2H
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
0
0
D
04.04.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
3
0
W
17.09.24
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
2
1
W
14.04.24
H2H
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
2
1
L
12.08.23
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
1
D
Last matches: Real Soacha
11.04.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Tigres FC
0
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Depor FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Barranquilla
2
2
D
05.03.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Internacional Palmira
2
2
D
22.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Orsomarso
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Leones FC
2
0
W
26.01.26
Pri
Real Soacha
Envigado
0
2
L
28.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Cucuta
1
0
W
20.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Popayan
1
0
W
17.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
02.11.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Patriotas
1
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Internacional Palmira
2
0
W
07.10.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Orsomarso
1
1
D
19.09.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Quindio
3
1
W
08.09.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Patriotas
0
1
L
30.08.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Leones FC
3
0
W
09.08.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Cucuta
1
1
D
26.07.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Real Santander
2
0
W
16.07.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Jaguares
0
1
L
13.06.25
Pri
Real Soacha
Huila
1
2
L
H2H at home: Real Soacha
17.11.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
04.04.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
3
0
W
17.09.24
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
2
1
W
12.08.23
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
1
D
Last matches: Real Cartagena
29.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Envigado
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Bogota FC
2
1
W
12.05.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
0
3
L
27.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Barranquilla
0
0
D
13.04.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Patriotas
0
1
L
27.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Popayan
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Envigado
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Tigres FC
0
0
D
09.02.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Bogota FC
1
0
W
04.02.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Ind. Yumbo
1
1
D
23.01.26
Pri
Real Cartagena
Real Santander
1
0
W
24.11.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Popayan
0
0
D
17.11.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
2
1
W
07.11.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Patriotas
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Quindio
0
0
D
10.10.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Barranquilla
1
3
L
29.09.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Jaguares
1
2
L
16.09.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Patriotas
1
3
L
01.09.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Huila
1
0
W
15.08.25
Pri
Real Cartagena
Real Santander
0
2
L
H2H away: Real Cartagena
17.11.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
2
W
04.04.25
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
3
0
L
17.09.24
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
2
1
L
12.08.23
H2H
Real Soacha
Real Cartagena
1
1
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 17 10 3 4 28:17 11 33
D W W W L
3 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
4 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
5 17 7 6 4 26:19 7 27
D L L L W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L