COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
22.09.2026 21:00
Estadio Villa Concha

Real Santander vs Orsomarso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Real Santander Win 54%
Draw 5.9%
Orsomarso Win 40.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Santander0.94
Orsomarso1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Santander Real Santander
WWDLW
20 GF / 37 GA
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WLDWL
17 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.87
Average Goals Scored
0.77
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
13
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Santander Real Santander 23 matches
Orsomarso Orsomarso 22 matches
Real Santander Statistic Orsomarso
3 Wins 6
8 Draws 7
12 Losses 9
20 Goals For 17
37 Goals Against 23
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
13 BTTS Yes 6
18 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Orsomarso. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orsomarso having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Real Santander Analysis

Real Santander approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 17 points from 23 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats with a 20:37 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orsomarso Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Orsomarso have collected 25 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 17:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Real Santander won 1 times, Orsomarso won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Real Santander's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
H2H summary: Real Santander wins 1, draws 5, Orsomarso wins 8

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 15 8 8 50:35 15 53
L W L W W
2 29 15 8 6 38:27 11 53
W L L L W
3 29 14 9 6 30:18 12 51
L D D W W
4 30 14 8 8 40:28 12 50
D D L L L
5 29 14 6 9 40:28 12 48
W L L W L
6 29 10 8 11 27:25 2 38
D W L W W
7 23 9 9 5 23:16 7 36
W D W W L
8 24 9 7 8 29:29 0 34
L W W W L
9 29 9 7 13 35:39 -4 34
L L W W L
10 29 8 10 11 23:30 -7 34
D L L W L
11 23 6 9 8 27:27 0 27
W W W L D
12 22 6 7 9 17:23 -6 25
L L L W D
13 23 5 9 9 25:30 -5 24
W W D L L
14 23 5 8 10 24:32 -8 23
W W W W L
15 24 4 7 13 15:39 -24 19
L D L L L
16 23 3 8 12 20:37 -17 17
L D W W D
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)