🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
13.09.2026 01:30
America First Field
Real Salt Lake
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
Nicolás Fernández Mercau · Assist: Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
🔄
57'
Juan Arias ↔ Kobi Henry
Real Salt Lake
🔄
57'
Luca Moisa ↔ Colin Guske
Real Salt Lake
61'
Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos · Assist: Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
🟨
64'
Alexandros Katranis
Real Salt Lake
🔄
67'
Sergi Solans ↔ Lineker Rodrigues
Real Salt Lake
🔄
67'
Philip Quinton ↔ Aiden Hezarkhani
Real Salt Lake
🟨
69'
Lineker Rodrigues
Real Salt Lake
🔄
72'
Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos ↔ Bénie Adama Traoré
New York City FC
🔄
76'
Morgan Guilavogui ↔ Taylor Booth
Real Salt Lake
🔄
80'
Nico Cavallo ↔ Kevin O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
80'
Jonathan Shore ↔ Aiden O'Neill
New York City FC
🟨
81'
Kevin O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
88'
Hannes Wolf ↔ Alonso Martinez
New York City FC
🟨
90+8'
Matthew Freese
New York City FC

Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds 2.13
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
2.13
BTTS Yes
86%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Real Salt Lake Win 55.4%
Draw 5.7%
New York City FC Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Salt Lake1.6
New York City FC1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake
WWDLW
47 GF / 43 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
43 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
22
BTTS Yes
20
19
Over 2.5
15
5.39
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 27 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 29 matches
Real Salt Lake Statistic New York City FC
10 Wins 8
7 Draws 10
10 Losses 11
47 Goals For 43
43 Goals Against 40
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
22 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 5
5.39 Shots On Goal 4.75
14.13 Total Shots 11.67
4.65 Corners 3.83
49.5% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Real Salt Lake expected to line up in 3-4-3 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward New York City FC. Real Salt Lake have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Real Salt Lake Analysis

Real Salt Lake approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 28 points from 21 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 34:33, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through S. Solans (4 goals), Zavier Gozo (4 goals), D. Luna (4 goals), with creative support from S. Solans (3 assists), Zavier Gozo (2 assists), D. Luna (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC sit 7 with 29 points after 23 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 36:31 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Fernández Mercau (9 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from A. Ojeda (4 assists), N. Fernández Mercau (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Real Salt Lake won 4 times, New York City FC won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:18 from Real Salt Lake's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Real Salt Lake 3-4-3 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Real Salt Lake 8, New York City FC 6
H2H summary: Real Salt Lake wins 4, draws 3, New York City FC wins 2

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)