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21.10.2026 19:00
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Referee: Istvan Kovacs, Romania
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
RB Leipzig
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
43'
Bernardo Silva
Real Madrid
⚽
52'
Arda Güler · Assist: Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid
🔄
63'
Neil El Aynaoui ↔ Rocco Reitz
RB Leipzig
🔄
63'
Brajan Gruda ↔ Andrija Maksimović
RB Leipzig
🟨
68'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
Real Madrid
🟨
70'
Rocco Reitz
RB Leipzig
🔄
70'
Vinícius ↔ Yan Diomande
Real Madrid
🔄
70'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras ↔ Marc Cucurella
Real Madrid
🔄
73'
David Raum ↔ Max Finkgräfe
RB Leipzig
🔄
73'
Antonio Nusa ↔ Tidiam Gomis
RB Leipzig
🔄
78'
Christopher Nkunku ↔ Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
🔄
78'
Arda Güler ↔ Brahim Díaz
Real Madrid
⚽
83'
Kylian Mbappé · Assist: Yan Diomande
Real Madrid
⚽
85'
Tidiam Gomis · Assist: Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
⚽
87'
Yan Diomande · Assist: Brahim Díaz
Real Madrid
🔄
88'
Kylian Mbappé ↔ Carlos Espí
Real Madrid
🔄
88'
Jude Bellingham ↔ Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 88%
Draw 6%
RB Leipzig Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid2.22
RB Leipzig1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
W W W L W
13 GF / 8 GA
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
L W W L W
13 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2.56
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
11
BTTS Yes
6
13
Over 2.5
10
7.36
Shots on Goal
6.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 16 matches
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 14 matches
Real Madrid Statistic RB Leipzig
13 Wins 7
1 Draws 0
2 Losses 7
41 Goals For 27
17 Goals Against 24
2.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
11 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 12
13 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 2
7.36 Shots On Goal 6.25
17.27 Total Shots 17.5
6.45 Corners 5.5
50.9% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 2 times, RB Leipzig won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Real Madrid's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 / RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Real Madrid 3, RB Leipzig 3
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 2, draws 1, RB Leipzig wins 1

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 4 0 0 20:5 15 12
W W W W
2 4 4 0 0 13:7 6 12
W W W W
3 4 3 1 0 8:3 5 10
W D W W
4 4 3 0 1 19:6 13 9
W W L W
5 4 3 0 1 14:6 8 9
W L W W
6 4 3 0 1 12:6 6 9
L W W W
7 4 3 0 1 12:7 5 9
W W L W
8 4 3 0 1 14:10 4 9
L W W W
9 4 3 0 1 11:7 4 9
W W W L
10 4 3 0 1 8:4 4 9
W L W W
11 4 3 0 1 8:6 2 9
L W W W
12 4 3 0 1 7:5 2 9
W W L W
13 4 2 2 0 12:5 7 8
W D D W
14 4 2 1 1 7:4 3 7
L D W W
15 4 2 0 2 8:6 2 6
W W L L
16 4 2 0 2 10:9 1 6
W W L L
17 4 2 0 2 8:8 0 6
W L L W
18 4 2 0 2 8:9 -1 6
W W L L
19 4 1 2 1 6:11 -5 5
W D L D
20 4 1 1 2 10:8 2 4
L W L D
21 4 1 1 2 4:4 0 4
L L W D
22 4 1 1 2 9:10 -1 4
W L D L
23 4 1 1 2 4:5 -1 4
L D W L
24 4 1 1 2 3:4 -1 4
L W L D
25 4 1 1 2 4:9 -5 4
D L W L
26 4 1 0 3 6:7 -1 3
W L L L
27 4 1 0 3 6:11 -5 3
L W L L
28 4 1 0 3 8:14 -6 3
L L W L
29 4 1 0 3 5:11 -6 3
L L L W
30 4 1 0 3 5:11 -6 3
L L W L
31 4 1 0 3 4:10 -6 3
L L W L
32 4 1 0 3 4:11 -7 3
L L W L
33 4 1 0 3 4:16 -12 3
L L L W
34 4 0 1 3 5:9 -4 1
L D L L
35 4 0 1 3 4:10 -6 1
D L L L
36 4 0 0 4 1:17 -16 0
L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)