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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
04.10.2026 01:20
Real Cartagena
Match Timeline
Popayan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
P. Urrutia
Popayan
⚽
19'
J. Andrade
Popayan
🔄
46'
J. Rios ↔ J. P. Gallego
Real Cartagena
🔄
54'
C. De Las Salas ↔ L. Taffur
Real Cartagena
🔄
54'
L. Guevara ↔ D. Castillo
Real Cartagena
⚽
61'
J. Andrade
Popayan
🟨
64'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🔄
66'
E. Lopez ↔ A. Escobar
Real Cartagena
🔄
66'
D. Pino ↔ J. Rodriguez
Real Cartagena
⚽
69'
F. Montero
Real Cartagena
🔄
71'
D. Cortes ↔ S. Munoz
Popayan
🟥
75'
Popayan
Popayan
🟨
75'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🟨
78'
Popayan
Popayan
🟨
81'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🔄
89'
P. Urrutia ↔ M. Lucumi
Popayan
🔄
90+3'
J. Cuero ↔ J. Salcedo
Popayan
⚽
90'
F. Montero
Real Cartagena

Real Cartagena vs Popayan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.89
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.1%
1.40 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.89 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.72 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.30 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Cartagena Win 57.1%
Draw 16.9%
Popayan Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Cartagena1.45
Popayan1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena
WWDLW
51 GF / 36 GA
Popayan Popayan
WLDWL
29 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
19
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Cartagena Real Cartagena 33 matches
Popayan Popayan 24 matches
Real Cartagena Statistic Popayan
15 Wins 6
10 Draws 9
8 Losses 9
51 Goals For 29
36 Goals Against 31
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
19 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 19
16 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Real Cartagena's more proactive style and Popayan's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Real Cartagena arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 54 points compared to Popayan in 13 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Popayan. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Popayan having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Real Cartagena Analysis

Real Cartagena come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 54 points from 32 matches. The record of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 50:35 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Popayan Analysis

Popayan sit 13 with 24 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 25:30 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Cartagena won 7 times, Popayan won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:15 from Real Cartagena's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.1%)
H2H summary: Real Cartagena wins 7, draws 6, Popayan wins 2

Standings

Primera B: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
3 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
4 15 9 2 4 24:14 10 29
W W L W W
5 15 7 5 3 23:15 8 26
L L W D W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)