GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Red Bull Arena
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
RB Leipzig
Match Timeline
Union Berlin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
M. Finkgrafe
RB Leipzig
25'
Romulo Cardoso
RB Leipzig
🔄
31'
F. Ronnow ↔ C. Klaus
Union Berlin
🟨
34'
Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
🔄
59'
A. Ilic ↔ I. Ansah
Union Berlin
🔄
60'
C. Trimmel ↔ J. Juranovic
Union Berlin
🔄
60'
J. Haberer ↔ A. Kemlein
Union Berlin
63'
R. Baku · Assist: Y. Diomande
RB Leipzig
🔄
68'
Romulo Cardoso ↔ B. Gruda
RB Leipzig
🔄
68'
A. Ouedraogo ↔ C. Harder
RB Leipzig
78'
D. Doekhi · Assist: J. Juranovic
Union Berlin
🔄
79'
Y. Diomande ↔ J. Bakayoko
RB Leipzig
🔄
79'
R. Baku ↔ B. Henrichs
RB Leipzig
🔄
83'
A. Schafer ↔ L. Burcu
Union Berlin
🟨
84'
Diogo Leite
Union Berlin
🔄
90'
A. Nusa ↔ T. Gomis
RB Leipzig

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.3%
-
Probability Distribution
RB Leipzig Win 75.2%
Draw 10.2%
Union Berlin Win 14.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig1.87
Union Berlin1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
WWDLW
59 GF / 37 GA
Union Berlin Union Berlin
WLDWL
34 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
17
BTTS Yes
18
20
Over 2.5
17
5.93
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 30 matches
Union Berlin Union Berlin 30 matches
RB Leipzig Statistic Union Berlin
18 Wins 8
5 Draws 8
7 Losses 14
59 Goals For 34
37 Goals Against 52
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
17 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 22
20 Over 2.5 17
13 Over 3.5 12
11 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 8
5.93 Shots On Goal 3.7
15.87 Total Shots 12.43
5.4 Corners 5.07
53% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by RB Leipzig's more proactive style and Union Berlin's more cautious structure. RB Leipzig appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Union Berlin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with RB Leipzig expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Union Berlin in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union Berlin having the stronger overall control. RB Leipzig come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. RB Leipzig arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 59 points compared to Union Berlin in 11 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Union Berlin.

RB Leipzig Analysis

RB Leipzig come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 59 points after 30 matches. The return of 18 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 56:36, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through C. Baumgartner (12 goals), Yan Diomande (12 goals), Romulo Cardoso (9 goals), with creative support from C. Baumgartner (7 assists), Yan Diomande (7 assists), D. Raum (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with V. Gebel, S. Sani, L. Zingerle unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Union Berlin Analysis

Union Berlin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 32 points from 30 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 33:50, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Ansah (5 goals), O. Burke (5 goals), Rani Khedira (5 goals), with creative support from A. Ilic (8 assists), I. Ansah (2 assists), Derrick Köhn (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Raab, R. Skov, D. Preu unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, RB Leipzig won 7 times, Union Berlin won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:16 from RB Leipzig's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
Predicted formations: RB Leipzig 4-3-3 / Union Berlin 3-4-3
Missing players: RB Leipzig 6, Union Berlin 4
H2H summary: RB Leipzig wins 7, draws 2, Union Berlin wins 6
Stats
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
Union Berlin Union Berlin
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
10 Corner Kicks 4
6 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Goal 1
6 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 1
14 Shots insidebox 3
6 Shots outsidebox 2
0 Goalkeeper Saves 6
602 Total passes 296
524 Passes accurate 212
4.49 expected_goals 0.19
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

RB Leipzig
Formation
Union Berlin
M. Vandevoordt
M. Vandevoordt
R. Baku
R. Baku
W. Orban
W. Orban
E. Bitshiabu
E. Bitshiabu
M. Finkgrafe
M. Finkgrafe
A. Ouedraogo
A. Ouedraogo
X. Schlager
X. Schlager
C. Baumgartner
C. Baumgartner
Y. Diomande
🎯
Y. Diomande
Romulo Cardoso
Romulo Cardoso
A. Nusa
A. Nusa
F. Ronnow
F. Ronnow
D. Doekhi
D. Doekhi
L. Querfeld
L. Querfeld
D. Leite
D. Leite
C. Trimmel
C. Trimmel
A. Schafer
A. Schafer
R. Khedira
R. Khedira
J. Haberer
J. Haberer
T. Rothe
T. Rothe
O. Burke
O. Burke
A. Ilic
A. Ilic
RB Leipzig 4-3-3
Starting XI
26
M. Vandevoordt
G
17
R. Baku
⚽ 63' ↓ 79'
D
4
W. Orban
D
5
E. Bitshiabu
D
35
M. Finkgrafe
⚽ 22'
D
20
A. Ouedraogo
↓ 68'
M
24
X. Schlager
M
14
C. Baumgartner
🟨 34'
M
49
Y. Diomande
🎯 63' ↓ 79'
F
40
Romulo Cardoso
⚽ 25' ↓ 68'
F
7
A. Nusa
↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Gulacsi
G
16
L. Klostermann
D
9
J. Bakayoko
↑ 79'
F
10
B. Gruda
↑ 68'
F
33
A. Maksimovic
M
27
T. Gomis
↑ 90'
F
39
B. Henrichs
↑ 79'
D
19
K. Nedeljkovic
D
11
C. Harder
↑ 68'
F
Union Berlin 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
F. Ronnow
↓ 31'
G
5
D. Doekhi
⚽ 78'
D
14
L. Querfeld
D
4
D. Leite
🟨 84'
D
28
C. Trimmel
↓ 60'
M
13
A. Schafer
↓ 83'
M
8
R. Khedira
M
19
J. Haberer
↓ 60'
M
15
T. Rothe
M
7
O. Burke
F
23
A. Ilic
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
25
C. Klaus
↑ 31'
G
33
A. Kral
M
18
J. Juranovic
🎯 78' ↑ 60'
D
21
T. Skarke
M
10
I. Ansah
↑ 59'
F
34
S. Nsoki
D
39
D. Kohn
D
6
A. Kemlein
↑ 60'
M
9
L. Burcu
↑ 83'
F
Last matches: RB Leipzig
29.05.26
Fri
RB Leipzig
Mamelodi Sundowns
1
3
L
16.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
1
4
L
09.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
02.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
1
4
L
18.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
1
W
11.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
0
W
04.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
2
1
W
20.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1899 Hoffenheim
5
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
0
1
L
07.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
2
1
W
01.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
21.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
2
2
D
15.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfL Wolfsburg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Köln
2
1
W
31.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1
2
L
27.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
1
1
D
24.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Heidenheim
3
0
W
17.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1
5
L
14.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
2
0
W
20.12.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
1
3
L
Last matches: Union Berlin
16.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
4
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
3
1
W
02.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
2
2
D
18.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
1
2
L
11.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Heidenheim
1
3
L
05.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli
1
1
D
21.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayern München
0
4
L
15.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
08.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
1
4
L
28.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
21.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
2
3
L
06.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
1
D
31.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
1
3
L
24.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
0
3
L
18.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart
1
1
D
15.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
10.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2
2
D
05.01.26
Fri
Union Berlin
Erzgebirge Aue
2
1
W
20.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
1
0
W
H2H: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
24.04.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
12.12.25
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
3
1
L
01.02.25
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
0
0
D
14.09.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
0
0
D
04.02.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
0
W
03.09.23
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
0
3
W
11.02.23
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
L
20.08.22
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
2
1
L
23.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
L
20.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
1
W
03.12.21
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
2
1
L
22.05.21
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
2
1
L
20.01.21
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
0
W
18.01.20
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
18.08.19
H2H
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
0
4
W
Last matches: RB Leipzig
09.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
11.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
0
W
20.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1899 Hoffenheim
5
0
W
07.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
2
1
W
21.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
2
2
D
15.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfL Wolfsburg
2
2
D
31.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1
2
L
17.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1
5
L
14.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
2
0
W
20.12.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
1
3
L
06.12.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
0
W
23.11.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
2
0
W
01.11.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
3
1
W
18.10.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
20.09.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Köln
3
1
W
30.08.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
H2H at home: RB Leipzig
24.04.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
14.09.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
0
0
D
04.02.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
0
W
11.02.23
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
L
23.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
L
20.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
1
W
20.01.21
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
0
W
18.01.20
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
Last matches: Union Berlin
10.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
3
1
W
11.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Heidenheim
1
3
L
21.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayern München
0
4
L
15.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
28.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
14.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
2
3
L
31.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
1
3
L
18.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart
1
1
D
15.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
05.01.26
Fri
Union Berlin
Erzgebirge Aue
2
1
W
20.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
1
0
W
06.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
1
3
L
23.11.25
Bun
Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli
1
0
W
24.10.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
0
1
L
04.10.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
0
2
L
21.09.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
3
W
31.08.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
0
3
L
H2H away: Union Berlin
24.04.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
0
0
D
04.02.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
0
L
11.02.23
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
W
23.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
2
W
20.04.22
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
2
1
L
20.01.21
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1
0
L
18.01.20
H2H
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
L

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

RB Leipzig 6 missing
-
V. Gebel
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Sani
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
-
L. Zingerle
Missing Fixture Wrist Injury
OUT
-
C. Lukeba
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
E. Banzuzi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Raum
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
Union Berlin 4 missing
-
M. Raab
Missing Fixture Hand Injury
OUT
-
R. Skov
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Preu
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Jeong Woo-Yeong
Missing Fixture Knock
OUT