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13.09.2026 13:30
Red Bull Arena
Referee: Florian Badstubner, Germany
RB Leipzig
Match Timeline
Hamburger SV
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Nicolás Capaldo
Hamburger SV
⚽
17'
T. Gomis · Assist: E. Banzuzi
RB Leipzig
⚽
28'
A. Nusa
RB Leipzig
🔄
35'
A. Ouedraogo ↔ C. Nkunku
RB Leipzig
🔄
46'
Y. Poulsen ↔ T. Moffi
Hamburger SV
🟨
48'
Castello Lukeba
RB Leipzig
🟨
71'
Shafiq Nandja
Hamburger SV
⚽
72'
W. Orban · Assist: A. Nusa
RB Leipzig
🔄
73'
C. Lukeba ↔ M. Esteve
RB Leipzig
🔄
73'
S. Nandja ↔ W. Omari
Hamburger SV
🔄
73'
P. Daka ↔ F. Vieira
Hamburger SV
🔄
74'
B. Henrichs ↔ R. Baku
RB Leipzig
🔄
74'
T. Gomis ↔ Romulo Cardoso
RB Leipzig
⚽
74'
C. Nkunku · Assist: A. Nusa
RB Leipzig
⚽
77'
Romulo Cardoso
RB Leipzig
🔄
78'
A. Nusa ↔ M. Finkgrafe
RB Leipzig
🔄
78'
A. S. Lokonga ↔ O. Stange
Hamburger SV
🔄
89'
Z. El Ouahdi ↔ B. Jatta
Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
RB Leipzig Win 69.3%
Draw 3.5%
Hamburger SV Win 27.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig1.85
Hamburger SV1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
L L W L L
6 GF / 12 GA
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
L L W D L
5 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
2.29
5
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
6
6.67
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 9 matches
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 matches
RB Leipzig Statistic Hamburger SV
4 Wins 2
0 Draws 1
5 Losses 4
14 Goals For 10
16 Goals Against 16
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 2.29
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 2
6.67 Shots On Goal 2
19.33 Total Shots 8
6.33 Corners 2.5
56.3% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, RB Leipzig won 6 times, Hamburger SV won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:7 from RB Leipzig's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: RB Leipzig 4-3-3 / Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
Missing players: RB Leipzig 2, Hamburger SV 3
H2H summary: RB Leipzig wins 6, draws 1, Hamburger SV wins 1

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 25:6 19 17
W W D W W
2 7 5 2 0 12:4 8 17
W D D W W
3 7 4 1 2 16:9 7 13
L L W D W
4 7 4 1 2 16:12 4 13
L W W W D
5 7 4 0 3 20:11 9 12
W L W L W
6 7 3 3 1 15:14 1 12
W D D W D
7 7 3 1 3 16:13 3 10
L W L W L
8 7 3 1 3 12:15 -3 10
L W L D L
9 7 2 3 2 17:13 4 9
D L D L D
10 7 3 0 4 14:14 0 9
W W L L W
11 7 3 0 4 6:16 -10 9
L W W W L
12 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D L W L D
13 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
W D L W L
14 7 2 2 3 10:17 -7 8
L W L D W
15 7 2 0 5 10:13 -3 6
L L W L L
16 7 1 3 3 4:7 -3 6
D L L D W
17 7 1 3 3 6:18 -12 6
D D W L L
18 7 1 0 6 11:22 -11 3
W L L L L
Champions League league stage
Europa League league stage
Qualifying
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation